ADA momentum weakens but no panic: why a 9% range fluctuation is more likely than a decline

Cardano(ADA) performed remarkably over the past week, with a total increase of over 20%. However, further observation reveals that the internal momentum of this rally is weakening. Technical and on-chain data present an interesting contradiction: price action remains weak while momentum indicators continue to rise, forming a hidden bearish divergence; meanwhile, on-chain holders are choosing to wait rather than realize profits. This environment of “diminishing momentum but no selling pressure” points not to a rapid decline but to short-term sideways consolidation.

Contradictory Signals in Technical Analysis

Uptrend still intact, but momentum cooling down

From the 12-hour chart, ADA remains in a clear uptrend. The 20-period EMA is approaching the 50-period EMA, and once a valid golden cross forms, it will further reinforce the medium-term bullish structure. This is an important technical support level for bulls.

However, the issue lies with the momentum indicator. Recently, price action has been somewhat weak, while RSI continues to rise, creating a classic hidden bearish divergence. Such patterns usually do not signal an immediate trend reversal but clearly indicate that upward momentum is waning, and the market needs time to digest previous gains.

Key levels and expected movements

According to technical analysis, if the candlestick breaks below $0.43 and forms a lower high, the correction risk will be further confirmed. But the more probable scenario is sideways consolidation rather than a quick drop.

Key levels table:

On-chain Data Tells a Different Story

Holders are watching, not selling

The technical weakness contrasts interestingly with on-chain data. Short-term holders (7-30 days) have reduced their token spending by over 80% in a single day, while long-term holders (2-3 years) have decreased their spending by over 90%.

These signals are very clear: whether traders or long-term investors, most are currently choosing to wait rather than take profits. There is no sign of panic selling, which is a key basis for the “sideways rather than crash” judgment.

Why is this important

• The sharp decline in short-term selling indicates traders are waiting for confirmation of direction
• The decrease in long-term holder spending suggests no large-scale exit of major positions
• The overall environment is characterized by “weakened momentum but limited selling pressure”

Ecosystem Developments Provide Mid-term Support

It’s worth noting that ADA’s short-term technical adjustments occur amid accelerated ecosystem development. According to recent news, Cardano governance voting has approved new key integrations, including Pyth Oracle, Dune Analytics, and support for mainstream stablecoins, which are about to be implemented.

Founder Charles Hoskinson recently stated that 2026 will be a great year for Cardano, mentioning that Midnight and the entire ecosystem are expected to perform their best. The 2026 roadmap also looks promising: Leios expansion, Bitcoin DeFi integration, Midnight partner chain launch, infrastructure improvements, and more.

While these ecosystem positives do not change the short-term technical correction, they provide strong support for the medium-term trend.

Summary

Based on combined technical indicators and on-chain behavior, ADA is more likely to trade within a range of $0.39-$0.43 in the short term, with about 9% volatility. This is neither a bearish signal nor an immediate bullish moment, but a phase where the market is consolidating and gathering strength for the next move.

The overall trend remains bullish; the key is whether the $0.43 resistance can be broken effectively. If successful, the next target could be $0.48 or higher; if the $0.39 support breaks, the correction space will open further. Until then, waiting and observing for clear signals is the more rational approach. For mid-term holders, ecosystem development acceleration is a more important factor to watch.