Bitcoin market trend reversal? Beware of CME's two "gaps" and the potential for pullback pressure amid high market volatility expectations and the ongoing battle between bulls and bears

After Bitcoin's price surged, two key gaps appeared on CME (the $90,000-$91,500 range and around $88,000-$90,000). Market concerns suggest that a potential pullback to fill these gaps could trigger intense volatility, especially if the $88,000 level is breached, potentially causing a "narrative reversal" and putting high-leverage investors at risk.

The formation of CME gaps results from the noticeable price difference caused by the weekend closure of US stock markets and continuous trading of Bitcoin spot prices. Although the saying "gaps are usually filled" is not an absolute rule, when enough traders focus on the same price level, it becomes a key area for order clustering and stop-loss accumulation.

Options market volatility data also supports this view, showing that around December 31, the market expected annualized implied volatility for the next month to be between 40% and 58%. This contrasts with the continued increase in short positions in options during late November, indicating that the market has already priced in significant volatility expectations.

Meanwhile, data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced outflows on multiple trading days from December 18 to 29, followed by a rebound in early January. This rhythm of capital flow changes often accompanies price volatility, highlighting the importance of technical indicators like gaps.

Analysts believe that for the two CME gaps in Bitcoin, the market is likely to follow one of three paths:

1. The price quickly falls back to the $90,000-$91,000 range and stabilizes. After leveraged positions are liquidated and spot buying resumes, market sentiment resets, and altcoins will follow Bitcoin's rebound;

2. The price undergoes a deep correction, falling below $90,000 and dropping to around $88,000. This could directly impact high-risk altcoins like meme coins, trigger a large-scale deleveraging, and severely undermine market confidence;

3. Supported by a strong macroeconomic environment and trend momentum, Bitcoin holds its current levels and continues to rise, breaking the market consensus that "gaps must be filled."

Overall, CME gaps are merely indicators of market liquidity and sentiment rather than absolute rules, as macroeconomic conditions and capital flow rhythms have long surpassed the significance of technical gap levels.

#CME缺口 #Bitcoin