Precious metals break through together, why is Bitcoin still hovering around 92,000? Understand the three major signals of market divergence

Market Anomaly: Why Are Anti-Fiat Assets Performing Differently?

Last Thursday, December 12(, the market movement revealed an interesting phenomenon: gold and silver both successfully broke through historical highs, and U.S. stocks also rebounded driven by expectations of rate cuts. However, Bitcoin, regarded as the ultimate hedge asset, remained stagnant. The latest price hovers around $94,290, with a 24-hour increase of only +1.59%, contrasting sharply with the strong performance of other assets.

The sharp decline in the US Dollar Index became the main driver of this upward cycle. After the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on Wednesday, the dollar finally broke out of its descending wedge, reversing its previous decline to reach its lowest level since mid-October. Against this macro backdrop, traditional safe-haven assets surged: gold rose over 1% and approached $4,300, while silver soared 5% to a record high of $64. Bitcoin, which should have followed this risk-off trend, struggled to sustain above $90,000.

Internal Conflict in the Crypto Market: Why Are Altcoins Strengthening?

Interestingly, altcoins that should have followed Bitcoin’s decline instead staged a comeback. ADA gained +8% in a single day, and AVAX rebounded +4.81%, contrasting with the 6% to 7% drops reported earlier, indicating that market sentiment is reassessing risk assets. Ethereum also performed notably, rising +4.59% in a day, breaking through $3,300, well above the previous $3,245 level.

This divergence reflects a key shift: the market has fully priced in the rate cut expectations. As Jasper De Maere, an analyst at trading firm Wintermute, pointed out, Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq on only 18% of macro event trading days over the past year. This suggests that the stimulative effect of easing monetary policy on crypto assets has diminished, and investors are shifting their focus from Federal Reserve policies to the US crypto regulatory framework.

Technical Perspective: Is Selling Pressure Truly Diminishing?

Data analysis firm Swissblock posted observations on social media indicating that Bitcoin’s downward pressure is indeed weakening. The second wave of sell-offs was significantly less intense than the first, and signs of stabilization are emerging. However, the key point is—these signals of stabilization have yet to confirm a trend reversal.

Looking at the weekly chart, Bitcoin earlier in the quarter attempted to break above $125,000 but failed. Subsequently, the dollar broke out of its descending wedge, intensifying Bitcoin’s sell-off, with a maximum decline of 36.22%, until the price attracted buyers near $80,000. However, the rebound from this low was weaker than the dollar’s decline, with the last three weekly candles showing prominent upper wicks, reflecting persistent selling pressure suppressing the rebound momentum.

Daily and Four-Hour Charts: Optimistic Signals

Turning to the daily chart, there are several hopeful signs for bulls. After bottoming around $80,000, Bitcoin has gradually built a “higher low” structure. Market acceptance of the $90,000 level is increasing, and the high point has been gradually lifted from earlier range tops to around $94,652.

More optimistic technical patterns appear on the four-hour chart. Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle, with previous support levels turning into resistance at around $93,961. A successful breakout could target the $100,000 mark, with the previous high of $99,939 being the most closely watched target for bulls.

Lingering Concerns: Why Is Strength Not Enough?

However, potential bearish arguments also warrant caution. The current macro environment should be highly favorable for Bitcoin—gold and silver have both broken down, the dollar has weakened significantly, and the rate cut cycle has begun—but Bitcoin has yet to demonstrate the expected strength. This lack of momentum suggests that its upward potential may still be limited.

Market concerns about stagflation in the first half of 2026 are also emerging. The shift of focus from monetary policy to regulatory policy could become a key variable in the next phase.

Two Possible Scenarios

The bulls are optimistic, believing that the “higher high + higher low” structure on short-term charts provides a basis for an upward trend. Breaking above $93,961 directly toward $100,000 is seen as a critical target.

The bears, however, point out that amid the rally across all safe-haven assets, Bitcoin’s lagging performance exposes a lack of upward momentum, warning that the rebound may lack staying power.

Currently, Bitcoin at $94,290 sits between these two narratives, awaiting the next technical confirmation.