Memory shortage accelerates, Winbond Electronics (2344) turns the corner and welcomes an industry inflection point, with the stock price rising above 67.9 yuan.

Industry Structural Gaps Emerge, Traditional Memory Sees a Turnaround Moment

In 2025, the memory market experienced a fundamental supply and demand reversal. As global chip giants concentrated their main capacities on high-margin, high-bandwidth memories (HBM) and next-generation high-end products, traditional DRAM and Flash memory faced tight supply conditions. This shift has brought long-awaited development opportunities to traditional memory manufacturers like Winbond Electronics.

The main reason lies in the fundamental supply and demand reversal in the DDR4 memory market since the third quarter. While international major manufacturers prioritize capacity allocation to DDR5 and HBM, Chinese peers are also adjusting their capacity deployment simultaneously, leading to a sharp decline in DDR4 supply. Downstream applications—including enterprise SSDs (eSSD), industrial computers, and automotive electronics—still rely on DDR4 memory, so actual demand far exceeds market expectations.

This turn of events is particularly evident in inventory data. The average inventory weeks for major DRAM suppliers have shortened from 13-17 weeks at the end of last year to just 2-4 weeks in October this year. Local manufacturers like Winbond and Macronix have also seen their inventory turnover days decrease from the traditional 185 days to around 140 days, reflecting substantial improvements in revenue and profitability.

Winbond Today Hits Limit Up, Stock Price Poised to Challenge 69.1 Yuan

Driven by strong expectations of rising memory prices, Winbond (2344) performed remarkably today. During the rally, trading volume broke through 200,000 shares by 10 a.m., and the stock ultimately hit the limit-up price of 67.9 yuan, a 9.87% increase. This also boosted the entire memory group, including Macronix and Powertech, making them the focus of the market.

What’s more impressive is that this is the third consecutive trading day of gains for Winbond, with a total increase of 20.37%. Both trading volume and value topped the Taiwan stock market. The overall index also successfully broke above 28,000 points, showing strong momentum. Currently, Winbond’s stock price is gearing up to challenge the historical pre-peak high of 69.1 yuan since 2025.

From a technical perspective, Winbond’s stock price today touched the upper Bollinger Band and remains above all short-term moving averages, forming a clear bullish alignment with strong short-term momentum.

Revenue Hits Three-Year High, AI Application Demand as the Driving Force

Winbond’s latest operational data further confirms market expectations. In November 2025, consolidated revenue surged to NT$8.629 billion, nearly 5% higher than the previous month and 38.7% higher than the same period last year, marking the best performance in over three years. The total revenue for the first 11 months of this year reached NT$79.635 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 5.85%.

The strong revenue growth is driven by the rapid expansion of AI application demand. International memory giants have significantly shifted capacity toward high-margin HBM production, squeezing supply of traditional DRAM and Flash memory. Winbond, by proactively increasing capital expenditure and securing customer orders, has become a direct beneficiary of this trend.

Particularly noteworthy is the dramatic change in memory prices. DDR4 contract prices, which were only about NT$1 per chip at the beginning of this year, have skyrocketed to 5-6 times that amount in the fourth quarter. The market has even seen rare instances where DDR4 spot prices surpass DDR5, creating a “price inversion.” Among these, 16Gb DDR4 supply shortages are most severe, with spot prices soaring to around US$100 per chip, far exceeding the industry reference price of about US$45.5.

Institutional Investors Are Optimistic, Memory Cycle Expected to Continue Until 2026

Several foreign institutional reports recently expressed strong optimism about the memory industry’s outlook, believing that the upward momentum in prices could extend into 2026. They particularly emphasized that investors should not rush to take profits. Additionally, foreign institutions expect the supply gap for NOR Flash memory to continue widening into 2026, with prices potentially increasing by over 20% in the first quarter of next year.

Looking ahead to 2026, under continued tight supply and demand, DDRAM contract prices are expected to keep rising, though the pace may slow. The price estimates for DDR5 and DDR4 are approximately NT$17 and NT$12 per chip, respectively, indicating that this strong cycle could last at least until 2026. Market research predicts that the global supply-demand gap for DDR4 memory will expand to over 10%.

Based on a firm outlook on the industry cycle, foreign investors have prioritized Winbond as a top recommended stock. Analysts point out that Taiwanese memory manufacturers like Winbond and Macronix are currently benefiting from the “spillover effect” of rising DDR4 and DDR5 standard memory prices. This wave of market activity is viewed as a typical cyclical opportunity.

Capacity Expansion in Dual Axes, Institutional Buying Actively Supports

To capitalize on this market demand, Winbond is launching a dual-axis capacity expansion plan. The Taichung plant will continue to increase output of NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and mature process DRAM; the Kaohsiung new plant’s monthly DRAM capacity will be raised from the current 15,000 wafers to 24,000-25,000 wafers, with the goal of mass production of more advanced 16nm process products in the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, the company’s key technology platform, CUBE (Wafer-Level Stacking), will start contributing significantly to revenue from 2027.

From a capital perspective, institutional sentiment remains bullish. Data shows that foreign investors, fund managers, and proprietary traders have collectively increased their holdings of Winbond by over 50,000 shares, with foreign investors being the most active, adding over 42,000 shares in a single week. Supported by improving industry fundamentals, rising product prices, and concentrated chip holdings, the market holds high expectations for the future growth of the entire memory sector.

The key to future market performance lies in the speed at which downstream brands, industrial computers, and automotive electronics shift to DDR5, as well as the price difference between DDR4 and DDR5. Driven by growing demand in AI, industrial control, automotive, and networking communications, Winbond is poised to enter the most profitable phase of the memory industry cycle in 2026.