Bitcoin signals a cycle bottom in November? On-chain data reveals the true situation of short-term holders

【Blockchain Rhythm】Recently, an interesting data point has been uncovered. An on-chain analysis platform found that when Bitcoin dropped to around $80,000 in late November last year, a phased, even cyclical bottom may have already formed.

How can we tell? By looking at an indicator—the ratio of short-term holder (holding for no more than 155 days) profit supply to loss supply. On November 24th, this ratio dropped to 0.013. What does this mean? Historically, whenever this indicator drops to this level, it corresponds to an important market bottom. Just check the records: in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, all of these points were touched.

How extreme was the situation back then? The loss supply of short-term holders soared to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse. Meanwhile, the profit supply was only 30,000 BTC, a complete imbalance.

Fast forward to early 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to around $94,000, an increase of over 7%. During this process, the loss supply gradually fell back to 1.9 million BTC, while the profit supply rose to 850,000 BTC. The ratio also increased to 0.45.

Even more interesting is that this indicator follows a pattern: when it approaches 1 and breaks through, Bitcoin often enters a sustained upward trend. And the true top? It only appears when this ratio approaches 100. The current figure is still far from 100, suggesting there may be plenty of room for further rise ahead.