Year-end Market Review: Euro/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, WTI Crude Oil Technical Scan

Milan’s Perspective | Market activity remains subdued during the Christmas holiday, with the Federal Reserve having completed three rate cuts this year. The current focus shifts to the subsequent performance of the labor market and inflation data. Notably, the Fed is concerned about rising unemployment rates, and non-farm payrolls may be overestimated, with actual month-over-month employment even facing the risk of turning negative. Bank of America forecasts that the Fed will implement two rate cuts in the first half of next year, and expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to return to the 4%–4.25% range by year-end, with further downside potential not entirely ruled out. Short-term rate cut expectations help support risk asset trends.

EUR/USD: 1.1700 as a key support level, rebound potential opens

On Friday, EUR/USD rose slightly by 0.04% during the session, reaching a high of 1.1793, but still facing resistance at the 1.1800 level. Technically, 1.1700 is the most critical threshold currently, as this level determines the future direction. As long as EUR/USD stays above 1.1700, the overall upward trend is expected to continue, with rebound targets aiming for the 1.1900 and even 1.2000 levels.

Conversely, if EUR/USD breaks below the 1.1700 support, caution is needed as it may test the 1.1630 level, and further downside could challenge the 1.1500 support. Considering the potential bearish impact of Fed rate cut expectations on the dollar, bullish euro positions may have opportunities to be accumulated on dips.

Key Levels

• Support: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1500
• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2000

AUD/USD: 0.6700 Battle intensifies, medium-term trend remains

AUD/USD saw a minor increase of 0.02% on Friday, reaching around 0.6718. The current price is oscillating around 0.6700, and although the medium-term bullish pattern remains intact, short-term consolidation pressures are emerging.

If AUD/USD cannot hold above 0.6700, the next downside target is 0.6620, and whether this level can be effectively defended will influence the continuation of the medium-term rally. Once supported at 0.6620 and rebounding, upward targets of 0.6800 and even 0.6900 will come into traders’ view. Conversely, failure to stabilize above 0.6620 could increase downside risks.

Key Levels

• Support: 0.6700, 0.6620, 0.6520
• Resistance: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6900

NZD/USD: Gann 2/1 line may serve as a correction starting point

NZD/USD rose slightly by 0.05% on Friday, reaching a high of 0.5841. It is important to note that the NZD has broken above the Gann 2/1 line level (0.5770), but the rebound momentum appears to be weakening, and short-term pullback pressure is present. Technical analysis suggests the price may retrace to near the Gann 2/1 line for confirmation.

The 0.5850 level will be a key resistance for the recent rebound. If blocked here, a retracement back to the 0.5770 Gann line is likely as planned. As long as 0.5770 holds, the medium-term rally could restart, with targets set at 0.5900 and 0.6000.

Key Levels

• Support: 0.5800, 0.5770, 0.5730
• Resistance: 0.5850, 0.5900, 0.6000

WTI Crude Oil: AO indicator suggests rebound recovery opportunity

WTI crude oil rose slightly by 0.09% on Friday to $58.6. From a technical perspective, the AO (Awesome Oscillator) indicates increasing bullish momentum, which brings the possibility of a rebound correction from the long-term downtrend that began in June.

Once WTI breaks above and stabilizes above $59.0, the rebound space will further open, with $61.5 and even $64.5 becoming phase targets. However, if the price falls below the support at $57.0, caution is needed as downside momentum could extend, potentially reaching lower levels.

Key Levels

• Support: 57.0, 55.0, 52.0
• Resistance: 59.0, 61.5, 64.5