Legendary investor Howard Marks once said: "The real risk is not from the unknown, but from being unaware of your own cognitive boundaries."

From a behavioral economics perspective, this statement hits the core of the "overconfidence bias." Commonly, investors start to inflate their abilities after a few wins, believing they understand the market (especially in rapidly changing fields like crypto assets), and in doing so, they overlook the limits of their judgment.

This is especially painful in the crypto market. Look at the Solana ecosystem—SOL's price movement depends not only on technological upgrades but also on the progress of ecosystem projects—such as the performance of projects like PIPPIN and GRIFFIN you might have traded—plus macro liquidity fluctuations. If you only focus on historical gains and community hype when placing orders, without noticing declining on-chain activity or the diversion of users to other blockchains, you're likely heading for a liquidation.

How can you avoid this trap?

**First, define your boundaries.** Treat each trade as a "hypothesis test," not a belief that "I got it right." For example, if you're bullish on SOL, set specific observation indicators—such as ecosystem TVL changes, node counts, daily active wallets—and immediately reassess if the data deviates from expectations.

**Second, leave a safety margin.** Even if you're optimistic about a narrative (like the community effect of a Memecoin), you should reserve some price buffers for unexpected events. Strict stop-losses are not about giving up; they are a smart way to quantify the "unknown" into risk costs.

**Third, know your limitations.** The market is driven by a diverse range of participants, and you can never see everything. "I'll wait and act once clear signals emerge" may seem passive, but it's actually actively defining your capability zone to avoid reckless guesses.

So, true risk management boils down to four words: admit ignorance.