2026-01-08 18:35:25

Exchange rate depreciation often serves as excellent nourishment for risk assets. Do you remember the crazy market行情 of 20-21? At that time, the RMB exchange rate touched lows of 6.3 to 6.4, which was when the market was at its hottest. A weakening US dollar is the key to activating stocks and crypto assets.

The current situation is different. The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains high at 3.75%, which is no small number. Under high interest rates, financing costs soar. Who still dares to borrow expensive US dollars to go long? Leveraged traders will exit en masse, and retail investors are even more hesitant. Funds will only lie dormant, waiting for a turning point in the interest rate environment.

Therefore, ultimately, the key to unlocking the next round of risk asset行情 is the dual resonance of US dollar depreciation and declining interest rates. Both conditions are indispensable.

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ZKProofEnthusiast

· 01-11 00:46

Wait, are you saying we're still waiting for that "double resonance"? Honestly, I don't think the Fed will let interest rates drop that quickly in the short term. That's right, leverage trading has indeed all exited, but the question is when will that inflection point come... Seems like we still have to wait. I also made some money during the 20-21 wave, but it's different now. Don't just look at the exchange rate; the US dollar is still so "expensive." I don't quite understand the dollar depreciation theory. Now the whole world is raising interest rates, yet the RMB is weakening. The logic isn't wrong, but everyone who truly understands knows... we're just in a phase of dead waiting now.

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CryptoSourGrape

· 01-09 20:03

If only I hadn't been so timid back then... Watching that crazy bull run of 20-21 slip away right in front of my eyes, and now I'm still hesitating about when the interest rates will finally come down.

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TokenVelocity

· 01-09 12:05

Wait, this logic is a bit confusing... The wave of RMB depreciation in 20-21 was indeed crazy, but now the Federal Reserve is still stubbornly maintaining high interest rates. Isn't that contradictory? The US dollar depreciates and the RMB appreciates, but borrowing costs are still high. How could there be a next round?

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GateUser-c802f0e8

· 01-09 02:01

Basically, it's just waiting for the Federal Reserve to loosen its stance. Right now, this exchange rate trend is completely different from the one in 2020.

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DeFiCaffeinator

· 01-08 19:01

That's right, the 20-21 wave was indeed crazy. Now with interest rates so high, who dares to move? Wait until the Federal Reserve truly loosens its stance, otherwise it's all just empty talk. Both conditions need to be met; one is not enough. It would be great if the dollar could actually depreciate. Holding it now is too exhausting. Interest rates are the key; high interest rates crush the dreams of leveraged traders. This logic makes sense, but I wonder when that moment will come...

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CantAffordPancake

· 01-08 18:55

The depreciation of the US dollar and interest rate cuts must go hand in hand; missing either is not an option. This statement is spot on. Wait, are interest rates still this high? No wonder leverage traders have all fled. The 20-21 wave was truly incredible. Want to do it again? Dream on. Interest rate cuts need to come faster, or the capital winter will last too long. Honestly, interest rates are really the devil. Who dares to borrow money to gamble? When will the double resonance arrive? This is driving me crazy. The RMB needs to depreciate; otherwise, there's no way for crypto to survive.

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GateUser-74b10196

· 01-08 18:53

Wait a minute, it sounds good, but can high interest rates really be sustained forever? It feels like it's about to break.

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CodeAuditQueen

· 01-08 18:51

That's a good point, but this logic is somewhat similar to the condition checks for reentrancy attacks—appearing complete but actually missing some checks. The two conditions are dollar devaluation and interest rate cuts, but who can guarantee they will actually occur simultaneously? It's like an attack vector that the contract didn't consider—there are always vulnerabilities in the market that you can't foresee.

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