Predictive market data is often more honest than public opinion. Looking at the trade on Polymarket regarding a certain political figure acquiring an island in the North Atlantic before 2027, the price hovers around 15%—this probability alone says everything.

There are no official negotiations, no negotiation frameworks, let alone historical precedents. The whole thing originated from a tweet that sparked a joke, which later gradually evolved into a topic of public discussion. But it is precisely this "virtual" aspect that traders have used real money to vote with.

The interesting part is that prediction market participants use their wallets to vote, quantifying the probability. That 15% is neither an absolute denial nor close to mainstream expectations—it accurately reflects how difficult this event truly is in reality. The transparency of on-chain data makes every bet a genuine judgment by market participants about the future.