What does the CFTC's consecutive approvals of prediction markets and the approval of Bitnomial mean?

Question

[BitPush] US regulators continue to reach out to prediction markets. Derivatives trading and clearing platform Bitnomial just received a “no-objection letter” from the CFTC on January 8th, which means they can legally operate prediction contracts based on digital asset prices and macroeconomic indicators. Users can participate in these contracts through exchanges and clearinghouses, allowing them to forecast crypto market trends or hedge macroeconomic risks.

This is not an isolated case. Polymarket, PredictIt, LedgerX, DraftKings, Gemini—these institutions have all received similar licenses. The consistent approval timeline indicates that the US is actively supporting the development of compliant prediction markets.

However, to be clear, although CFTC new Chairman Mike Selig completed this approval during his tenure, the “no-objection letter” is essentially a non-binding, non-enforceable staff-level permission, and does not constitute formal regulatory approval of the business model. In other words, it is a signal, but not the final green light for compliance.

Nevertheless, the market trend is clear—the competition in the US compliant prediction market sector will only intensify.

MevSandwich · Accepted Answer

Wow, is the US really opening up now? I thought this was going to be a distant dream before.

What does getting the approval for Bitnomial mean? Are prediction markets really about to take off?

Compliance is really achievable in the US; when will it be possible on our side?

It's Gemini and Polymarket again—these early movers are really making a killing.

The no-objection letter sounds fancy, but honestly, it's probably just about the staff, right? Does Selig's endorsement really carry that much weight?

Are prediction contracts used to hedge macro risks? Sounds like the Federal Reserve's work.

This time, it's truly different—the US authorities have officially recognized the legal status of prediction markets.

SchrodingerAirdrop · Answer

The US is really about to open up prediction markets, it feels like a change is coming.

This move by the CFTC is quite aggressive; getting the green light for Bitnomial is just the beginning.

A no-objection letter sounds simple, but it actually carries significant weight...

Even Gemini has joined in, indicating that this is a serious matter.

Speaking of which, Polymarket has been scamming users in the US for a while; is it finally compliant now?

I don't quite understand hedging macro risks, but it sounds like there's a new twist in crypto trading.

LiquidationTherapist · Answer

The prediction market has been deregulated, but the ones who can really make money are those who have already laid out their plans...

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Things are loosening up in the US, but let's not get too excited yet; the actual regulatory framework hasn't been finalized.

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Platforms like Bitnomial and Polymarket are all playing the "no-objection letter" game on the edge, it feels like regulators are just dozing off.

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Hedging macroeconomic risks sounds great, but in reality, it's just a new trick to trap retail investors.

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Is continuous approval possible? Ha, as soon as Selig is replaced, these licenses could be revoked in minutes.

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This is true casino legalization, just with a more professional-sounding name.

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After all this time, compliant prediction markets still end up being tools for big institutions to harvest retail investors.

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Honestly, I’m not very optimistic. US regulation is this weak; once the wind shifts, everything becomes useless.

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Polymarket has managed to survive until now, which shows that regulation simply can't control it.

FallingLeaf · Answer

The US is really planning to open up prediction markets, approving several... Looks like they're serious about it.

Bitnomial is quite aggressive this time, directly allowing for macroeconomic hedging.

Wait, this "No Objection Letter" sounds a bit vague. Can staff just approve it?

Compliance is compliance, it all depends on how it's implemented later.

MetaverseMigrant · Answer

The US is really trying to expand the prediction market sector with this move.

In simple terms, it's one approval after another, and Bitnomial is no exception this time. It feels like the trend has been set.

However, the "No Objection Letter" sounds pretty superficial. Can it truly protect users?

Now crypto players have a legitimate hedging tool, which is quite interesting.

The CFTC is finally less strict; the times are changing.

StealthDeployer · Answer

It's the same old story. When regulators "approve," everyone gets excited. Wake up—an approval letter doesn't mean a real green light.

The US regulators are trying to push retail investors into compliant platforms.

Polymarket has long been operating in the gray area. Now they’re just riding the wave of compliance, haha.

Prediction markets are indeed attractive, but don’t be fooled by these news stories. The underlying logic remains the same.

I wonder if Bitnomial will end up like LedgerX—just a flash in the pan with no follow-up.

So here’s the key question: can this actually be implemented? Or is it just another bureaucratic paper exercise?

ProbablyNothing · Answer

CFTC's recent actions are really paving the way, the prediction market is about to take off

Regulatory easing for the prediction market, the US is basically bottom-fishing for itself

Bitnomial received a no-objection letter, now it’s just a matter of who gets the first to reap the benefits

Basically, it’s trading under the guise of compliance, but the risks are still the same

The prediction market is making frequent moves, it feels like a big event is coming

Polymarket and LedgerX have both been approved, this is overwhelming support

A no-objection letter sounds impressive, but in reality, it’s just staff giving a nod, nothing special

If this prediction market really takes off, will it become the next harvest field for retail investors?

Joint approval? It feels more like a fragmented version of compliance, we’ll have to see what happens next

MrRightClick · Answer

The US is really starting to go all-in now, approving one after another, it feels like the prediction market is about to take off.

Even Gemini is involved, which says a lot... Compliance is the way to go.

The no-objection letter sounds fancy, but it's actually just a CFTC staff member's nod of approval, haha.

OvertimeSquid · Answer

The US is openly saying they want to bet, even the CFTC is helping to run casinos?

Bitnomial can freely create prediction contracts once they get a no-objection letter. To put it simply, it's legalization. This wave of regulation is really top-notch.

Wait, isn't this just a disguised way to allow retail investors to gamble on the crypto market trends? I feel like the risks are huge.

But on the other hand, Gemini and Polymarket are okay, so Bitnomial can't run away either. The US is indeed serious about this.

A no-objection letter sounds fancy, but in reality, it's probably just turning a blind eye, right?

What does the CFTC's consecutive approvals of prediction markets and the approval of Bitnomial mean?

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