Many people are paying attention to Bitcoin, but few truly understand the driving forces behind its price fluctuations.
The most overlooked fact is: Bitcoin is not stagnant; it is actually being compressed.
**Two forces at play**
Price is determined by two main factors—on one side is genuine demand (ETF inflows, spot trading), and on the other side is mechanical hedging (traders' gamma positions). Currently, demand still holds the upper hand, but it is gradually retreating. This week, $1.2 billion flowed into the spot ETF market, yet the price is consolidating sideways. Does it look like a failure? No, it’s actually absorption.
**The hedging squeeze**
The $90k level is critical. Traders are positioning for long gamma at this level. The logic of going long gamma is simple—reduce positions when prices rise, add positions when prices fall. They are not shorting Bitcoin; they are hedging risk. But the result is the same: an invisible ceiling is forming.
Every buy order encounters hedging sell-offs. Every dip is bought back. Price volatility continues to narrow, and trading volume declines accordingly.
**Why compression is a positive**
Here’s the key—compression does not eliminate demand; it accumulates demand. Imagine that cryptocurrency assets are flowing from less capitalized investors to more powerful institutional players. Volatility is being absorbed, not released.
The way to lift systemic suppression is not a slow rise but a rapid re-pricing.
**What will break the deadlock**
It won’t be time or news. The real turning point is when net buying pressure exceeds the outflow of hedging funds. $95k is the first barrier; $100k is the critical point where suppression turns into chasing.
**Waiting for the breakout**
Imagine this scenario: prices steadily rise while market sentiment remains moderate, and ETF inflows continue. This is the way to win the market without leverage—true breakthroughs are brewing in this seemingly silent movement.
Bitcoin is under immense pressure. The market will not stay tight forever. To use an analogy: it’s like a pot with a lid on, heated over high heat. Demand is the fuel, and traders’ hedging is the lid. It looks calm on the surface, not because the heat has dissipated, but because pressure has nowhere to escape.
Every new inflow of heat adds to the pressure. Volatility has not disappeared; it is just trapped. When the lid finally moves, it won’t slide—it will burst.
Price will not disappoint; it will simply reprice itself.
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BackrowObserver
· 01-08 22:40
This lid won't burst until the Year of the Monkey and the Horse, I think many people have already been crushed to the point of sleeplessness.
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On-ChainDiver
· 01-08 22:36
Wait, I've heard this compression theory before, but will the critical point from 90k to 100k really explode like that? It feels more like another emotional game.
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failed_dev_successful_ape
· 01-08 22:26
I'm a bit tired of compression theory, but this time there's really something worth noting, especially the water kettle analogy, which really hit the mark.
Many people are paying attention to Bitcoin, but few truly understand the driving forces behind its price fluctuations.
The most overlooked fact is: Bitcoin is not stagnant; it is actually being compressed.
**Two forces at play**
Price is determined by two main factors—on one side is genuine demand (ETF inflows, spot trading), and on the other side is mechanical hedging (traders' gamma positions). Currently, demand still holds the upper hand, but it is gradually retreating. This week, $1.2 billion flowed into the spot ETF market, yet the price is consolidating sideways. Does it look like a failure? No, it’s actually absorption.
**The hedging squeeze**
The $90k level is critical. Traders are positioning for long gamma at this level. The logic of going long gamma is simple—reduce positions when prices rise, add positions when prices fall. They are not shorting Bitcoin; they are hedging risk. But the result is the same: an invisible ceiling is forming.
Every buy order encounters hedging sell-offs. Every dip is bought back. Price volatility continues to narrow, and trading volume declines accordingly.
**Why compression is a positive**
Here’s the key—compression does not eliminate demand; it accumulates demand. Imagine that cryptocurrency assets are flowing from less capitalized investors to more powerful institutional players. Volatility is being absorbed, not released.
The way to lift systemic suppression is not a slow rise but a rapid re-pricing.
**What will break the deadlock**
It won’t be time or news. The real turning point is when net buying pressure exceeds the outflow of hedging funds. $95k is the first barrier; $100k is the critical point where suppression turns into chasing.
**Waiting for the breakout**
Imagine this scenario: prices steadily rise while market sentiment remains moderate, and ETF inflows continue. This is the way to win the market without leverage—true breakthroughs are brewing in this seemingly silent movement.
Bitcoin is under immense pressure. The market will not stay tight forever. To use an analogy: it’s like a pot with a lid on, heated over high heat. Demand is the fuel, and traders’ hedging is the lid. It looks calm on the surface, not because the heat has dissipated, but because pressure has nowhere to escape.
Every new inflow of heat adds to the pressure. Volatility has not disappeared; it is just trapped. When the lid finally moves, it won’t slide—it will burst.
Price will not disappoint; it will simply reprice itself.