The sudden internet control in Iran: The US-Iran confrontation enters a new phase, and the crypto market has already "priced in" in advance

2026-01-08 23:28:16

Iran implements cyber control in Tehran, which is not an isolated incident but the latest signal of escalating geopolitical tensions. Against the backdrop of the US taking military action against Venezuela, the US military mobilizing forces in the Middle East, and market forecasts showing an increased 35% probability of US strikes on Iran, Iran’s defensive moves become particularly noteworthy. Even more interesting is that all of this has been “priced in” by the crypto markets in advance.

Timeline of Escalating Geopolitical Tensions

From January 5 to January 8, a series of key events unfolded globally:

Date	Event	Significance
January 5	US military action against Venezuela	US expanding influence in the Western Hemisphere
January 6-7	US forces deploying transport and refueling aircraft to the Middle East	Military preparations against Iran
January 7	Market forecast shows 35% chance of US strikes on Iran	Market pricing of conflict risk
January 8	Iran enforces cyber control in Tehran	Iran’s defensive response

This timeline is quite clear: the US first acts against Venezuela, then gathers forces in the Middle East, the market reacts swiftly, and Iran responds with defensive measures.

The Deeper Meaning of Iran’s Cyber Control

Why choose cyber control?

Iran’s implementation of cyber control at this point can be explained by several reasonable reasons:

Information Control: Preventing domestic unrest and hostile information infiltration during heightened tensions
Cybersecurity: US military may be conducting cyber reconnaissance or preparing for cyber warfare; Iran preemptively strengthens defenses
War Preparations: Cyber control often signals the prelude to full-scale war preparations
Psychological Signal: Sending a message domestically and internationally that “we are prepared for the worst”

According to the latest reports, Iran’s armed forces have stated they remain highly alert and have strengthened combat readiness to respond to potential new attacks. This indicates Iran has entered a state of readiness.

What is this defensive action aimed at?

Related information shows that the US government has seized oil tankers in the Atlantic related to Iran sanctions evasion and cyber activities, indicating that the US is exerting pressure on Iran from multiple angles—military threats and economic sanctions. Iran’s cyber control can be seen as a defensive response under this multi-dimensional pressure.

Crypto Market Has Already “Priced In”

Here’s an interesting phenomenon: before Iran implemented cyber control, the crypto market had already signaled this.

According to reports, Lookonchain detected four new wallets betting on “US striking Iran before January 31, 2026” on the Polymarket prediction market, and these four wallets made no other predictions. This has been analyzed as potentially insider information leakage.

What does this imply?

Market foresight: Prediction markets often reflect the informed judgments of knowledgeable participants
Time frame: The specific window before January 31 suggests the conflict could erupt soon
On-chain data value: On-chain data from crypto markets has become a barometer for geopolitical signals

Meanwhile, gold, silver, and oil prices are approaching new highs, further confirming market concerns over geopolitical risks.

Impact Assessment

Short-term effects

Energy markets: Iran is a major global oil supplier; any conflict will push oil prices higher
Safe-haven assets: Gold, USD, and other safe assets may continue to strengthen
Regional stability: Tensions in the Middle East escalate further, affecting global supply chains

Medium-term effects

Global geopolitical landscape: The US simultaneously exerting influence in the Western Hemisphere and Middle East aims to reshape global power dynamics
Financial sanctions: If conflict escalates, Iran may face harsher international financial sanctions
Energy pricing power: Controlling Iran means the US can have greater influence over global energy prices

Summary

Iran’s cyber control is not a sudden move but a rational response to the rising global geopolitical tensions. From US military actions against Venezuela, to troop mobilizations in the Middle East, to predictive signals from crypto markets, and finally Iran’s defensive measures, a clear causal chain emerges.

Currently, the US-Iran standoff has entered an operational phase beyond political rhetoric. The crypto market’s early “pricing in” of this risk highlights that on-chain data and prediction markets are becoming important sources of geopolitical signals. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to developments around January 31 and the US’s specific actions toward Iran.

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