ETH Technical Outlook: Ethereum Stabilizes After Deep Correction, Recovery Still Capped

Ethereum is trading within a broader corrective structure after facing strong rejection from the $4,450–$4,950 macro supply zone, where price topped near the 0.786–1.0 Fibonacci levels. This rejection marked a clear distribution phase, ending the previous bullish cycle and initiating a sharp downside move.

The bearish momentum accelerated once ETH lost the $4,060–$3,790 region (0.618–0.5 Fib), flipping this zone into a major supply area and confirming a bearish structural shift.

EMA Structure (Bearish With Early Stabilization)

20 EMA – $3,079
50 EMA – $3,129
100 EMA – $3,302
200 EMA – $3,349

ETH remains below all major EMAs, keeping the broader trend bearish. The EMA cluster between $3,080–$3,350 acts as a heavy dynamic resistance zone. Price is currently attempting to reclaim the 20 & 50 EMA, which suggests early recovery momentum, but no confirmed trend reversal yet.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $4,956
0.786 Fib: $4,456
0.618 Fib: $4,064
0.5 Fib: $3,789
0.382 Fib: $3,514
0.236 Fib: $3,173
Fib 0: $2,623

ETH has successfully defended the $2,620–$2,700 major demand zone, aligned with the Fib 0 level, where buyers previously absorbed selling pressure. Recent price action shows higher lows, indicating a base-building phase and a potential relief rally.

A sustained move above $3,173 (0.236 Fib) opens upside toward $3,514–$3,790, where strong Fibonacci and EMA confluence resistance exists. A meaningful structural shift would require acceptance above $3,789 (0.5 Fib).

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 53

RSI has recovered above the neutral level, signaling improving momentum and increasing buyer participation. While this supports further upside attempts, RSI also suggests ETH is approaching key resistance zones, where consolidation or rejection remains possible.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$3,173 (0.236 Fib)
$3,080–$3,350 (EMA cluster)
$3,514 (0.382 Fib)
$3,789 (0.5 Fib)

Support

$3,050 (short-term support)
$2,620–$2,700 (major demand zone)
$2,623 (Fib 0)

📌 Summary

Ethereum is showing early stabilization signs after defending a major long-term demand zone. While short-term momentum is improving, the broader structure remains corrective unless ETH can reclaim the $3,500–$3,790 resistance zone decisively. Failure to hold above $3,050 would expose ETH back toward the $2,620 demand area.

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