Supreme Court tariff ruling imminent: How does policy uncertainty shake up the crypto market?

【BlockBeats】Recently, the market has been watching one major event—the U.S. Supreme Court is about to make a final ruling on the legality of the global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This is not just a trade issue; its impact on the crypto market could be quite profound.

Lower courts have already ruled that this approach constitutes administrative overreach. The Supreme Court also showed reservations during oral arguments. Market prediction data is more straightforward—the probability of the tariffs being overturned has exceeded 70%. This means that if the ruling finds the tariffs unconstitutional, the entire tariff system could be dismantled, and the federal government may have to refund over $100 billion. This would be a heavy blow to the U.S. finances, inflation structure, and global trade patterns.

The core issue boils down to two words: power. Can the President bypass Congress to impose taxes under the guise of a “national emergency”? This touches the nerve of the American political system.

From a macro perspective, both outcomes are worth pondering: if the tariffs become invalid, import tariffs will decrease, providing room for inflation and corporate costs to ease, but the deficit might widen, and markets may bet on the Federal Reserve moving towards easing more quickly. If the tariffs are maintained, the U.S. dollar could be supported in the short term, but the pressure on consumption and growth remains.

The significance for the crypto market is that—sharp fluctuations in policy expectations themselves are deadly. Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets are highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals, especially regarding inflation, the dollar, and global risk appetite. The ruling outcome will directly impact these three dimensions, further amplifying crypto market volatility. Rather than seeing this as a single policy event, it’s more like a major test of policy predictability. Investors need to be prepared for risk management.