Brothers, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.

The U.S. Department of Labor is set to release a major bombshell at 21:30 tonight—the first non-farm employment report for 2026. Don’t underestimate this data; it directly influences the Federal Reserve’s next move and serves as a "signal gun" for short-term fluctuations in all asset prices.

Let’s first see what the market expects. This time, the new non-farm jobs are expected to be 60,000, compared to 64,000 last month. It doesn’t sound impressive. But what if the actual number turns out to be equal to or even lower than the forecast? That would indicate that the U.S. economy’s "heart"—the employment market—might be faltering. Companies may hesitate to hire, making it harder for workers to earn money. This is usually a sign that the economy is cooling down or even heading into recession.

Another factor not to ignore is the unemployment rate. The December expectation is 4.50%, down from 4.60%. If the data shows a decrease, even by 0.1 percentage points, it can give the market a boost, indicating that the labor market remains tight. Conversely, if it’s higher than expected, the U.S. economy might really be hitting the brakes.

What does this mean for us traders?

In simple terms, the worse the data, the stronger the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and the more liquidity will flood the market. This could be good news for stocks, bonds, and even risk assets like Solana. On the other hand, if the data suddenly shows strong numbers, the market will need to reprice, and rate hike expectations might return.

So tonight, no one can rest easy.