2026-01-09 09:33:16

Tonight at 21:30, the US December Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and this report could become a key factor influencing the direction of the dollar, gold, and even the stock market in the near future.

The market generally expects around 60,000 new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. But the story behind this number is more intriguing.

If the data shows weakness, the market is likely to reinforce expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further, putting pressure on the dollar. The US stock market may rise in the short term but could face subsequent adjustments. Conversely, if the employment data performs well, expectations of rate cuts will cool down, and the dollar will find support, which could suppress stock market valuations.

Here’s a key detail — revisions to previous data are often more important than the new data itself. Upward or downward revisions of earlier figures can change the market’s overall judgment of the labor market trend. Therefore, paying attention to the growth rate of average hourly earnings, divergences between the unemployment rate and new jobs, and the labor force participation rate can help you better understand the true pulse of the market.

It’s worth noting that the JOLTS job openings data for November has dropped significantly, already indicating a weakening willingness among companies to hire. Amy Glaser from Decker Recruitment believes that the job market at the end of 2025 will be much stronger than at the beginning of the year, but it may stabilize in 2026. Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers pointed out that part of the market’s confidence comes from expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve — whether this expectation can continue to support the market depends on tonight’s data.

Additionally, this is the first data release on time after the US government shutdown, so market attention is especially high. However, completely "clean" data may not be available until February 2026.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 01-12 09:30

Here's another "key data influencing market trends." I bet 5 bucks it will still be revised downward from the previous value...

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GasFeeTherapist

· 01-12 07:47

60,000 people? Come on, I don't believe that number at all... --- Average hourly wage is the real king; don't be fooled by the unemployment rate. --- The rate cut expectation will be revealed tonight. If the dollar crashes, I'll go all in on ETH. --- Is the revision of previous data more important than new data? I knew it long ago, but when it comes to critical moments, you'll still get proven wrong haha. --- Willingness to hire is weakening... companies are really scared; 2026 might be a wash. --- Wait, the first data release after the government shutdown? Isn't there a lot of water in it... February is the "pure" one, so what am I looking at now? --- Is the Federal Reserve's easing policy supported by this data? That's too fragile.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 01-11 18:38

It's another non-farm night. Can these data really determine anything? Feels like every time they say "key," but a couple of days later, new news proves them wrong haha. Focusing on the average hourly earnings is enough; don't be fooled by the unemployment rate. Speaking of which, the first data after the government shutdown is even more unreliable. Instead of waiting for tonight, it's better to wait for the pure data from February 2026. 60,000 new jobs? Companies are all cutting jobs and reducing costs. I'm really curious how this number was obtained. As for the rate cut expectations, the Federal Reserve probably already has a plan in mind. Non-farm data is just a smokescreen. Revisions to previous figures are often more damaging and less obvious. That's true; I learned that lesson last year. Are US stocks short-term rising but long-term suppressed? This rhythm is really precise. It's time to cut losses again. JOLTS data already shows the problem, so why look at non-farm? The willingness to hire is gone; everything else is pointless.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 01-09 16:32

It's the same critical data again, and I always get nervous... However, the revision of previous values is indeed easy to overlook. Most people only focus on the new data, not realizing that the devil is in the details.

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CountdownToBroke

· 01-09 10:03

It's another big data day, and monitoring the market is the most torturous... Non-farm payrolls really feel like gambling, with 60,000 new jobs? Sounds pretty虚虚 The real kicker is the revision of previous figures, which often catches you off guard with a sudden change. The key is to look at whether the hourly wage and participation rate diverge, then you can sniff out some real insights. By the way, will 2026 really stabilize? I have a feeling this wave of easing expectations won't last much longer.

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MoonBoi42

· 01-09 10:00

Damn, it's another one of those data points that can cause a surge, and I have to stay glued at 21:30... The previous value correction is indeed easy to overlook, but it's often the real secret weapon.

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 01-09 09:43

It's the same kind of "key data" again, always emphasizing its importance, but in the end, the Federal Reserve still operates at its own pace... I'm tired of the revisions to previous values; ultimately, it's still about looking at the Fed's mood.

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ConfusedWhale

· 01-09 09:42

60,000 new jobs? Uh... that number sounds a bit shaky. The real test is the revision of previous figures; if you can't keep an eye on that, it's all for nothing. --- Honestly, it's just a gamble on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates or not. If they cut, the dollar and US stocks might rally; if not, just wait for valuations to get hammered. --- JOLTS has already dropped significantly; what are companies still pretending for? Will it stabilize in 2026? I think it's going to cool off. --- Why is the revision of previous figures more important than new data again... I hear this every time, and the market's reaction has never followed the usual pattern. --- The first data after the government shutdown is indeed precious. But what does this mean? The BLS data itself should be questioned. --- Average hourly earnings, labor force participation rate... these details are only understandable to ordinary people if they want to, but we're just waiting to see how the dollar will react.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 01-09 09:39

Really, the revision of previous values is the real killer, and new data isn't that important... The one-hour window tonight could determine the fate of our wallets.

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MissedAirdropAgain

· 01-09 09:34

Damn, another non-farm payroll report. If the data is truly weak, the dollar might get crushed. Will we have to rely on gold soaring again?

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