Cathie Wood's Major Prediction: The U.S. government may "directly buy" Bitcoin to reserve national assets

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood recently made a bold prediction on the “Bitcoin Brainstorm” podcast: the U.S. government may soon be no longer content with merely holding confiscated cryptocurrencies, but will start directly purchasing Bitcoin on the open market to bolster its national strategic reserves.

Currently, according to the U.S. government’s plan, the ultimate goal of its strategic Bitcoin reserve is to hold 1 million coins. As of January 9, 2026, the price of Bitcoin on the world’s leading digital asset exchange Gate is approximately $90,104.00.

01 Reserve Concept

The U.S. government’s strategic interest in Bitcoin has been formally established through an executive order. The Trump administration signed an order early in its second term to set up a national Bitcoin reserve mechanism, often compared to the “Fort Knox gold reserve” of the digital age.

However, according to Wood’s observations, this reserve currently has a key characteristic: all Bitcoin holdings come from asset confiscations during law enforcement actions, rather than active market purchases.

The U.S. Treasury currently holds about 198,000 confiscated Bitcoin, making it one of the largest publicly held crypto assets in government history.

02 Core Prediction

Wood’s core view directly addresses the fundamental contradiction of the current situation. She points out that the government seems hesitant to purchase Bitcoin directly with fiscal funds, but the initial reserve target is 1 million coins, far exceeding the current holdings.

“I think they will eventually start buying,” Wood explicitly stated on the podcast. She believes that the shift from passive receipt to active purchase will be an inevitable development in reserve policy.

In addition to direct purchases, Wood also predicts that the Trump administration will promote a “minimum exemption” tax policy, allowing small-scale cryptocurrency transactions to be exempt from capital gains tax, further lowering the barrier for ordinary people to participate in the crypto market.

03 Political Motivation

Wood believes that the Trump administration, in mid-2026 during its second term, is unlikely to relax its support for cryptocurrencies. She provides multiple reasons.

First, the Trump family’s own interests in the crypto space are continuously increasing. Second, during the last U.S. election, the crypto industry had coalesced into an important political force. Wood herself has publicly supported Trump and contributed to his re-election.

“The most important thing is that he doesn’t want to be a lame-duck president,” Wood analyzed. “He hopes to have one or two more productive years in office, and I believe he sees cryptocurrencies as a pathway to the future.”

04 Policy Framework

Cryptocurrencies have become a key focus for the Trump administration. The president has signed two executive orders aimed at establishing a crypto reserve and has formed a working group led by special advisor David Sacks.

The Sacks-led group proposed a series of policy recommendations in July 2025, including expanding the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority over spot trading of non-security digital assets.

Notably, the group has also asked the Treasury Department and the Department of Commerce to explore Bitcoin accumulation schemes that do not impact the budget, although no purchases have been implemented so far.

05 Market and Institutional Outlook

Looking back to 2025, Wood and ARK’s Lorenzo Valente noted that the crypto market experienced volatility and flash crashes. However, Valente added that new entrants tend to be more serious, and their long-term strategies could help stabilize the market.

Wood holds a moderate outlook on Bitcoin’s institutional adoption in 2025 and considers the possibility of a four-year cycle. She offers an indicator to watch: “If we can get through this year, survive this cycle, and keep Bitcoin’s decline within 30%, rather than 50%, 60%, or even 70%, that would be a victory.”

This focus on market resilience may be the backdrop for her prediction that the government will adopt a more proactive stance.

06 State Actions and National Impact

The potential moves by the federal government are not isolated. Several states, including Florida and Texas, are independently advancing legislation related to crypto reserves, indicating broad recognition of the strategic value of this asset class.

Once direct purchases at the national level begin, the impact will be profound. It would not only elevate Bitcoin to a strategic national asset but also provide the market with an unprecedented, sovereign-credit-backed large buyer.

Data from Gate shows that as of January 9, 2026, Bitcoin’s price is around $90,104. If the government truly initiates purchases, the timing, scale, and strategy of its market entry will be key variables influencing the global crypto market’s direction.

The Limited Supply and Strategic Value of Bitcoin

Compared to traditional strategic reserves like gold, one of Bitcoin’s core features is its absolute scarcity. Wood has repeatedly emphasized this point: “The difference between gold and Bitcoin is that when gold prices rise, production increases, and the supply growth rate accelerates, but Bitcoin does not have this situation.”

This fixed total supply of 21 million coins makes it, in theory, more resistant to inflation than any sovereign currency, which is one of the fundamental reasons for its inclusion in national reserve baskets.

Future Outlook

Legislators in Florida and Texas are debating how to incorporate digital assets into state fiscal reserves. Meanwhile, at ARK Invest’s office in New York, the Bitcoin candlestick chart on Cathie Wood’s computer screen is crossing the $90,000 mark.

What she sees is not just the price, but a clear trajectory extending from Wall Street to Washington’s Pennsylvania Avenue. In the vault of the national strategic reserve, the next batch of numbered Bitcoins may no longer bear the label “confiscated,” but instead be stamped with “purchased.”