Bitcoin's first week of the year analysis: structural improvements after deleveraging, what story is the options market telling?

【Blockchain Rhythms】The week of January 9th, Bitcoin completed its deep deleveraging at the end of the year and entered 2026 with a cleaner capital structure. From on-chain data, several signals are improving: profit-taking selling pressure has significantly eased, ETFs are once again experiencing net inflows, and open interest in futures contracts has stopped declining and is rebounding. Institutional participation is gradually recovering.

The most interesting development is in the options market. Among contracts expiring in the first quarter, traders are heavily buying call options in the $95,000-$100,000 range, while market makers are turning into net shorts in the same range—this misalignment is quite subtle, and the hedging activities of market makers may be providing upward momentum during price rises. Implied volatility is in a phase of rebounding from low levels, and skewness is continuously shifting towards a bullish correction, all of which are positive signals for the bulls.

Some analysts believe that we are now in an early stage where “the structure is improving, but sentiment is not yet euphoric.” If Bitcoin’s price can hold steady within the short-term cost basis for holders, the upward potential could gradually be unleashed. During this phase, many traders are adjusting their asset allocations in preparation for upcoming volatility.