2026-01-09 10:22:03

Brothers who are bottom-fishing and going long, stay alert tonight — the US December non-farm payrolls data is coming, at 9:30 PM Beijing time. The risk of market whipsaws should not be underestimated.

The market expects about 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate adjusted down to 4.5%. If the actual data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, it will confirm that the labor market has achieved a soft landing, which will further lower market expectations for rate cuts in 2026. The result could be a stronger dollar, with stocks and gold potentially suffering.

But if the data far exceeds expectations, for example, with over 100,000 new jobs, the inflation ghost will reappear, and the dollar will experience a strong rally. Risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks should be prepared for pressure. Conversely, if the data is weak, below 50,000 jobs, rate cut expectations will heat up, and stocks and gold could benefit, while the dollar may weaken.

The performance of risk assets like BTC and ETH ultimately depends on the dollar’s direction. Everyone should set stop-loss orders and wait for the data release to take action.

BTC4,69%

ETH7,36%

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HashBandit

· 01-12 02:40

ngl this nonfarm data is gonna rekt half the leverage traders tonight... back in my mining days we'd just ignore macro news and pray hashrate stayed stable, now everything's chained to the fed lmaooo

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CounterIndicator

· 01-09 22:35

Let's close the position before 9:30. Non-farm payroll data can be really ruthless with sudden spikes.

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LiquidityWizard

· 01-09 10:52

actually, the employment data correlation matrix here is pretty straightforward if you just run the numbers—soft landing scenario basically = usd strength = btc gets rekt, right? 给定的历史数据 this has played out like 73% of the time when nfp meets expectations. but tbh, everyone's already priced this in, so probably gonna see some wild wick action either way 🤷

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-09 10:38

9:30 sharp explosion, I bet the dollar will quietly rise.

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ThreeHornBlasts

· 01-09 10:22

9:30 will reveal all, praying for no wicks guys... --- Non-farm payroll data is really a bomb, if it goes wrong tonight I could get trapped... --- When the dollar dances, altcoins suffer with it, that's the reality --- I've already set my stop loss, just waiting to watch the show now --- Soft landing? Sounds nice, but I still gotta keep my eyes open till dawn --- A situation with like a hundred thousand jobs would really blow things up, doesn't feel probable though --- This one hour tonight determines if I'm in profit or loss for the week, huge pressure --- Everyone stay put before 9:30, hold steady and don't go crazy --- If the rate cut expectations drop, the crypto space will suffer, the logic is clear

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