Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US will release the December unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, two indicators that have always been the emotional trigger points for the crypto market.

Many traders fall into a simple and crude logical trap: bad data means rise, good data means fall. That’s what they say, but every time non-farm payrolls are announced, retail accounts are flooded with blood. Where exactly is the problem?

**The real underlying logic is: the market isn’t trading the data itself, but traders’ expectations of the data.**

Looking at the buildup this week makes it clear. ADP employment data and unemployment claims data were released early, and the market has already formed a consensus — non-farm payrolls might be weaker. Because of this expectation, Bitcoin surged from 87,600 straight up to around 91,000. In other words, the positive news has already been absorbed unconsciously.

Even if the data this evening turns out to be weak, it’s just the fulfillment of expectations. The sudden surge you imagined? Sorry, it might not even happen.

**A more acute reality is: non-farm payrolls are essentially emotion harvesters.**

The intense volatility at the moment of data release looks fierce, but it’s mainly the result of algorithmic trading and leverage liquidations colliding. The institutional playbook is clear: reduce positions in advance to avoid risk, then stay put for 10 to 20 minutes after the data is released, allowing retail stop-loss orders to be eaten one by one, cooling down market sentiment. Only then do they re-enter in line with the true direction.

If you’re still chasing the market within that 1-minute window, the outcome is often the same — being wiped out, then watching the big trend move away.

**So what should you really be watching?**

Instead of gambling on a single data point, focus on factors that truly influence medium- and long-term trends: multiple crypto bills entering review peak in mid-January; whether Bitcoin spot ETFs can continue to attract traditional capital inflows; whether the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path will undergo a fundamental change, rather than just noise from a single data release.

Short-term data battles are essentially a contest of skill and algorithms; retail traders are at best just fueling the liquidity for this game. Instead of sticking rigidly to economic data reports, it’s better to look at the bigger picture.