2026-01-09 10:24:58

Many people ask me how to make trading decisions, so I decided to lay it all out today.

The core logic is simple: subjective judgment guides the direction, but objective facts must be used to verify execution. Many people always confuse these two points.

Trading is not about predicting the future at all, but about responding to the present. I can't predict the market trend accurately, but once the trend unfolds, I need to know what to do. That’s everything.

To be blunt, why do some people win at gambling? Because they are very clear—they bet on high odds. The same principle applies to trading markets like BTC and ETH. You need to know when the risk-reward ratio is worth engaging and when it’s not. A simple probabilistic mindset, but too many people just throw it out in practice.

BTC2,92%

ETH6,05%

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DeFiDoctor

· 01-12 09:03

The consultation records show that most patients' clinical presentation is—subjective expectations and objective execution are severely mismatched. This guy is right; the risk-reward ratio is the key point of diagnosis, not whether a certain coin will go up. It is recommended to regularly review your trading logs, especially those "I just know it will rise" trades, as nine out of ten are likely signs of strategy complications. Probabilistic thinking seems simple, but in actual trading, the proportion of people who abandon it... haha, the data doesn't look good.

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AirdropHunter9000

· 01-12 08:53

That's right, that's the point. Many people are still struggling with market predictions, but I've given up on that approach long ago. Now I just look at what the data says. Odds-based thinking is really the core, but to be honest, 90% of the people around me simply can't stay calm and calculate logically. When a market wave starts, they go all in. This isn't gambling; it's money-making. This logic seems simple, but the execution difficulty is extremely high. Most people lack not a methodology, but disciplined execution. Subjective judgment does not equal reckless gambling; that's the key difference.

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MeaninglessGwei

· 01-12 04:20

There's nothing wrong with that; it's just that this probabilistic thinking is most easily defeated by greed.

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GweiWatcher

· 01-11 17:57

There's nothing wrong with that, but most people simply can't do it. I myself often fall into the trap of "I can definitely predict the market," only to be painfully taught a lesson by reality. Reaction speed is the key, not some divine prediction.

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LightningHarvester

· 01-09 10:55

It sounds good, but few actually follow through. I've seen too many people who initially say they use probabilistic thinking, but after two limit-downs, everything falls apart.

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MEVictim

· 01-09 10:54

There's nothing wrong with that. Predicting the future is just nonsense; the key is whether you can react quickly after the market moves. The difference between a gambler's mindset and probabilistic thinking lies right here.

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pumpamentalist

· 01-09 10:52

That's quite reasonable, but most people simply can't perform the objective verification step.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 01-09 10:47

There's nothing wrong with that, but the problem is that most people simply can't do it. It looks simple, but in practice, it becomes a gambler's mindset.

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quietly_staking

· 01-09 10:40

That's right, it's a probability game. Don't guess the market blindly; wait for signals before taking action. --- Objectively verifying facts is indeed the easiest way to avoid mistakes; most people are subjective first. --- Odds thinking is truly scarce; too many people go all-in based purely on feelings. --- No need to predict at all; just react quickly. Once you understand this, you'll lose half less. --- Many people know about risk-reward ratios, but few actually practice them. --- Dealing with the present is more valuable than blindly guessing the future. Just this one sentence can save many people. --- I've seen many people abandon probability thinking, and then their accounts hit bottom. --- Subjective judgment guiding direction is fine; the key is to verify with facts, otherwise it's all in vain. --- The gambling analogy is spot on; it's really about taking action when the odds are high, and watching the show at other times.

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 01-09 10:35

It's a very sharp point. The core is the odds mindset. Too many people are still predicting the future. Wait, this logic sounds familiar—how many actually follow through? That's not right. Dealing with the present is just about stop-loss, so why do so many people keep losing and doubling down? This set of arguments sounds right, but how do you calculate the risk-reward ratio? Who can judge accurately? Betting with high odds is easy to say, but the hard part is maintaining your mindset when executing. Honestly, most people know this principle, but the key is that once emotions come into play, they forget everything.

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