Every time the US non-farm payroll data is released, the global crypto market enters a "stress state." In the first two hours after the data is announced, the crypto market often experiences 3%-5% or even more intense fluctuations, with shorts and longs colliding most fiercely during this window. Many investors are double-locked in price "spikes."

But this scenario is quietly changing. As over 60% of large US banks incorporate Bitcoin services, the capital absorbed by spot ETFs continues to surpass the global annual mining output. The institutionalization of market participants is increasing, and the pricing power is gradually shifting from short-term sentiment to on-chain activity, regulatory developments, and other fundamentals. The volatility caused by non-farm data, frankly, is just short-term "noise" that the market will digest after release, making it unlikely to truly alter the long-term trajectory.

Thinking carefully, the logic of how non-farm data impacts the crypto market is actually quite straightforward: strong non-farm data → market expects rate hikes → short-term pressure; conversely, weak data → rate cut expectations rise → potential opportunities. This transmission chain does exist, but the preconditions are narrowing—the Federal Reserve's rate expectations and the US dollar trend are the real variables. Non-farm data is just one move in this grand chess game, not a decisive force.