If the US unemployment rate in December rises back to 4.4%, it may seem on the surface that the economy is weakening. But from another perspective, this signal actually contains a key point: the Federal Reserve is likely to accelerate the pace of rate cuts, and what does this mean for the crypto market? Ample liquidity.

Why focus on unemployment data? Because it directly influences the Fed's decisions. Cooling labor market → easing inflationary pressures → policy space to shift towards easing. For assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are sensitive to liquidity, this is equivalent to seeing a "green light" from policy.

**Short-term outlook (1-3 months)**

The market is currently like waiting at a traffic light. Mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin are oscillating within a range, with a large amount of leverage liquidation pressure concentrated around the $90,000 to $91,300 price band. Breaking through requires significantly increased buying power. From a sentiment perspective, investors are slightly more relaxed, but everyone is waiting—waiting for the upcoming non-farm payroll data, waiting for the Fed's clear stance. This period is a phase where bullish and bearish traders are testing each other.

**Mid-term development (within 2026)**

This is the real determinant of the trend. The market consensus is: the Fed will halt tightening policies and enter a rate-cutting cycle. Once this happens, the crypto market is like opening a tap. How will funds flow? Very simply—toward the assets most sensitive to interest rates. And cryptocurrencies happen to be among them.

More importantly, some analysts even suggest that multiple favorable policies could be layered and released—not just the Fed cutting rates, but possibly other macro factors aligning—creating an environment where the market could enter a "super cycle." It sounds exaggerated, but the logic is sound: abundant liquidity + asset allocation needs + the attractiveness of crypto as an emerging asset class.

**Long-term structural changes**

Here, an important shift needs to be addressed. In the past, we always discussed Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, viewing price volatility as a result of cyclical speculation. But now?

More and more sovereign nations, large corporations, and spot ETFs are becoming Bitcoin buyers, which changes the nature of demand—from retail speculation to long-term institutional asset allocation. This means the driving logic behind Bitcoin is quietly being rewritten: no longer just "waiting for halving hype," but becoming a long-term macro asset allocation option. Essentially, Bitcoin's attribute is evolving from a "high-risk speculative asset" to an "alternative asset."

**Bottom-line judgment**

Weakening employment data might scare some in the short term, leading to further market volatility. But it also hints at a more important turning point—the expectation of monetary policy easing. This expectation is the main support for crypto market gains in 2026. Of course, all this depends on the Fed truly acting in line with market expectations. If data repeatedly disappoint or policies unexpectedly change, the game rules will be rewritten. But based on current information, this logic holds.