ETH is only $150 away from the liquidation trigger point, with $1.256 billion in short positions poised to activate

According to the latest data, Ethereum (ETH) is currently in an extremely sensitive price range. According to Coinglass liquidation data, if ETH breaks through $3,245, the cumulative short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.256 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,939, the long liquidation strength will be $1.037 billion. Currently, ETH is priced at $3,093.41, only $152 away from the upward liquidation trigger point, and the risk of two-way liquidations is accumulating.

Liquidation Minefield Has Been Laid, Breakthrough Will Trigger Explosion

Over $1 billion in liquidation scale on each side

Currently, ETH is caught between two massive liquidation levels. Breaking above $3,245 will trigger $1.256 billion in short liquidations, meaning that a large number of stop-loss orders from short sellers will be executed, potentially pushing prices higher. Falling below $2,939 will trigger $1.037 billion in long liquidations, creating another liquidity wave in the opposite direction.

Both liquidation scales are quite significant. Referring to previous data, on January 7th, ETH’s liquidation levels were at $3,368(shorts $1.867 billion) and $3,065(longs $935 million), indicating that in just two days, the liquidation structure has changed markedly—liquidation scale above has decreased from $1.867 billion to $1.256 billion, while below it has increased from $935 million to $1.037 billion, showing the market’s risk focus is gradually shifting downward.

Market sentiment is turning more bearish

This shift in risk focus is not isolated. According to relevant market data, Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for three consecutive days, with 25 out of the past 26 days showing negative premium. This reflects growing selling pressure in the mainstream US market and a decline in institutional investors’ risk appetite.

Meanwhile, funding rates on major CEXs and DEXs also indicate a generally bearish market. When funding rates fall below 0.005%, it signifies that bearish sentiment dominates. Under this emotional backdrop, the probability of ETH falling below $2,939 may be higher than breaking above $3,245.

The True Meaning of Liquidation Strength

It should be noted that Coinglass’s liquidation strength does not precisely represent the number of contracts pending liquidation, but rather indicates the importance of each price level relative to its nearby liquidation cluster. Simply put: higher “liquidation pillars” mean that when the price reaches that level, liquidity waves will generate a stronger reaction.

The $1.256 billion figure represents the liquidity impact generated when ETH breaks above $3,245, forcing short positions to close, which can further accelerate the price increase. Conversely, the same applies downward.

Key Follow-up Observations

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently between a $152 upward space and a $154 downward space. This symmetrical structure itself indicates how high the market uncertainty is.

Investors should closely monitor these two key levels: once the price effectively breaks above $3,245 or falls below $2,939, chain reactions of liquidations may be triggered. Especially given the bearish market sentiment, downward risks should be particularly watched.

Summary

ETH is not just a price issue but a liquidation structure issue. Over $2 billion in two-way liquidation scales are poised at this price level, and the market’s bearish sentiment is reinforcing downward risks. Whether traders or holders, everyone should be aware of the current sensitivity—any effective breakout could trigger large-scale liquidity events. The key is to recognize that this is not a prediction but a risk alert based on on-chain data.