## Bitcoin Faces "Extreme Divergence" in 2026: How Clear Are the Signals from the Options Market?

Listen to the analysis from Galaxy Digital's research team: next year could be the most unpredictable year for Bitcoin. Currently, BTC hovers around $90.49K, but according to the pricing logic of the options market, traders are preparing for two very different futures.

### What Is the Options Market Telling Us

The truth behind derivatives trading is often more interesting than the price movements themselves. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, points out that the options market is reflecting an extremely polarized expectation—institutional investors assess the probability that Bitcoin in mid-2026 could convert to $70,000 or soar directly to $130,000 as nearly the same.

By the end of the year, this divergence becomes even more exaggerated. Traders are giving similar odds for Bitcoin to fall to $50,000 or rise to $250,000. This isn't about expressing bullish or bearish sentiment; it's saying: **"We really don't know what will happen."**

What does this wide price range hedge demand indicate? Institutions are preparing for intense volatility, rather than betting on a specific direction.

### Volatility Is "Maturing": Bitcoin Is Becoming Something Else

More noteworthy is the subtle change in the underlying structure. Long-term volatility indicators show that Bitcoin's price fluctuations are converging—despite the market still appearing full of uncertainties.

What is behind this? Galaxy Research points out that the widespread adoption of options writing strategies and yield-generating tools is suppressing extreme volatility through institutional-level hedging activities. In other words, Bitcoin is evolving from a "high-risk trading asset" into a "macro asset" behavior pattern.

The "volatility smile" curve in the options market also reveals clues: downside protection is now more expensive than upside exposure. This pricing pattern is common in mature macro assets (like stocks or commodities), but quite rare in high-growth cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is entering a "mature phase."

### Why 2026 Might Be "Boring" — and That’s a Good Thing

Alex Thorn believes that even if 2026 turns out to be a year of range-bound oscillation without clear trends, it won't weaken Bitcoin's long-term logic. More importantly are those unseen forces.

Galaxy's observation is: a mainstream asset allocation platform might include Bitcoin in a standard investment portfolio. This may seem ordinary, but it is actually significant—**once Bitcoin becomes a "default holding" rather than an "active choice," capital inflows will become continuous and decoupled from market cycles**.

This explains why Galaxy Digital remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, despite short-term difficulties. The firm predicts that, under the combined effects of expanded institutional access, potential easing of monetary policy, and increasing demand for fiat currency replacement, Bitcoin could push toward the $250,000 mark by the end of 2027.

### The Current Reality: Volatility Still Not Over

Back to the present. Bitcoin is steady at $90.49K, but Thorn admits that the crypto market still remains in a bear market atmosphere, and the sustained bullish momentum has yet to form. As long as Bitcoin doesn't stabilize above $105,000, downside risks remain.

Macroeconomic uncertainties, political risks, uneven market momentum—these factors make 2026 a year that is "too chaotic to predict with traditional methods." But it is precisely this chaos that is driving Bitcoin's transformation from a speculative asset into a strategic asset.