#稳定币支付与应用 Stablecoins are shifting from being a speculative tool to an operational infrastructure in prediction markets, and this transition is worth noting.

Observing the collaboration between Visa and Circle—where USDC is used for on-chain settlement by US banks 7×24—indicates that standardization in the payment layer is advancing. For prediction markets, the advantages of stablecoins are straightforward: instant access, global coverage, and settlement aligned with continuous trading hours. This addresses the pain points of traditional betting platforms.

However, on-chain and compliance pathways are diverging. Polymarket’s journey from being fined $1.4 million to acquiring a licensed entity and returning to the US is driven by the same logic—regulatory tolerance determines scale. Policies regarding stablecoin channels also follow this pattern. The European Central Bank’s warnings about private stablecoins are not accidental; Christine Lagarde’s statements suggest that by 2026, a gradual integration is more likely: betting platforms accepting stablecoin deposits, payment institutions bridging card payments to crypto, while simultaneously strengthening licensing, reserve audits, and disclosures.

Interestingly, the 2026 World Cup will serve as a stress test. With 48 teams, 104 matches, and extreme liquidity concentration over five weeks, combined with the legalized sports betting frameworks across 38 US states—this will fully expose the advantages of stablecoin settlement. Those who can maintain settlement integrity under peak load will hold the distribution rights.

In the short term, stablecoin policies have a secondary impact on prediction markets; in the long term, they determine which platforms will survive.