SUI Testing $1.79 While Bearish Structure Persists—MVRV Signals Divergence

Market Structure Remains Bearish Despite Recent Pullback

SUI has established a clear bearish setup over recent sessions, characterized by a succession of declining peaks and troughs. At its current price of $1.79, the token recently experienced a corrective bounce from a support zone, yet technical confirmation remains elusive. What we’re witnessing appears to be consolidation activity within a broader downtrend rather than any meaningful reversal signal.

The 1-hour timeframe revealed an interesting dynamic: initially, buyers and sellers reached equilibrium within a tight range. However, a decisive breakdown below this consolidation zone indicated a shift in control toward sellers. Subsequent price action—including failed retests of previously broken support (now acting as overhead resistance)—confirmed the sellers maintained the upper hand.

Demand Zone Bounce Shows Limited Follow-Through

The recent rebound to around $1.79 emerged from a historically significant demand area, suggesting short-term capitulation and a window for corrective buying. However, this bounce has lacked sustained momentum, with the price failing to break above nearby resistance zones convincingly.

On the daily chart, the broader picture tells a cautionary tale: the downtrend that initiated in November remains intact. Each attempted rally has fizzled before challenging key overhead resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering near 43-44, underscores the absence of genuine buying pressure—technical weakness rather than strength.

MVRV Ratio Suggests Limited Upside Without New Catalysts

Incorporating chain metrics into the analysis, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio provides additional context. A depressed MVRV would typically indicate holders are underwater, potentially limiting aggressive selling and creating support. However, without clear divergence signals or a sharp reversal in volume, MVRV alone cannot confirm a bottom.

Reversal Requires Specific Conditions

For a credible bullish reversal in SUI, the token must accomplish three critical objectives: (1) break decisively above the identified resistance zone with sustained volume, (2) reclaim previously violated resistance levels without rejection, and (3) demonstrate expanding buying momentum beyond the current tepid recovery.

Until these conditions materialize, expect consolidation with elevated downside risk. Additional tests of lower support levels remain plausible, and traders should remain cautious about chasing this rebound without clear confirmation signals.