Recently, there are two key events to watch in the market over the next couple of days. Once these two matters are settled, a rebound may occur, but don’t get too excited too early — in a bear market, every rebound ultimately paves the way for deeper declines.

From a probability perspective, slightly more signals are leaning towards the positive side. What are these two events?

**Event 1: Non-Farm Payrolls Data**

Tonight at 21:30, the US December non-farm payroll data will be released. If the data exceeds expectations, it will be bearish for the crypto market; if it falls short, it will be a bullish signal. Currently, market expectations for this data are evenly split, with high uncertainty.

**Event 2: US Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs**

Today or tomorrow, the US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of the tariff policies. If the ruling ultimately finds them unconstitutional, it could trigger over $100 billion in import tax refunds, leading to a new influx of funds into the market. At the same time, a reduction in tariffs means easing inflation pressures and lowering corporate costs, which are positive for the overall economic outlook. Although this might lead to a widening deficit and continued easing by the Federal Reserve, it is actually bullish for BTC and gold. The probability of an unconstitutional ruling is about 60%.

**Trading Suggestions**

The short-term strategy is to buy the dip and, when the price rebounds to around 98,000, start scaling into short positions with low leverage. The key is to grasp this rhythm.