This week's market opening has been truly explosive, with the main index posting 16 consecutive positive sessions, and trading volume surpassing 3 trillion for the first time in a decade, stabilizing above 4100 points again. At first glance, it's an impressive report card, but it also sparks considerable discussion—Is this volume expansion a sign of continued upward momentum, or should we be cautious of potential risks?

**Breaking through 3 trillion in volume—should we really panic?**

In previous years, such high trading volumes often accompanied a pullback, leading some to compare this year's experience with last year's, fearing a repeat of history. But a closer look reveals fundamental differences:

From 20 trillion to 30 trillion, this round took only one week, showing a much stronger bullish intent than last year. When trading volume broke 30 trillion last year, the market had already been rising for several months, with profit-taking and long-term positions piling up, making main force shakeouts more likely; this time is different—volume increased rapidly, and a large amount of incremental funds that missed out haven't fully entered yet, which itself hints at strong future momentum.

Another detail—last year's 30 trillion appeared during a peak, dominated by quantitative trading, with rapid emotional decline; this year, the market is just beginning the year, institutions just completed year-end rankings, and after the holiday, they entered the market aggressively, with no rush to realize gains. This kind of entry naturally doesn't resemble last year's hurried sell-offs.

Although there was a quick dip during trading, it was quickly absorbed, which precisely indicates strong support from buyers below. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable; quantitative funds may exert some pressure on prices, but the trend of making new highs is unlikely to change easily—unless clear market cooling signals appear, the bullish sentiment is already hard to suppress.

**Two messages to watch tonight**

U.S. stocks will release December non-farm payroll data soon, and the U.S. Supreme Court will also rule on some tariff issues. How do these relate to our market?

The core impact of non-farm data is on the Fed's rate cut expectations. Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to hold rates in January, but if the data underperforms, it will reinforce signals of future easing and rate cuts, which is positive for global equities.

Regarding tariffs, if the ruling overturns tariffs, it would be negative for the dollar index, which is a direct positive for us; even if tariffs remain unchanged, the impact is limited—currently, the influence of tariffs as a disruptive factor on the market has significantly diminished.

**What levels might the market challenge next week?**

The main index has stabilized above 4100 points with increased volume, also recovering from the intraday dip, which is not only an effective shakeout but also opens a window for missing out funds to enter. Currently, confidence in bullish positions is quite high.

From this perspective, the market is likely to continue hitting new highs at the opening next week, with the whole week potentially challenging the 4200 level. There's no need to worry about how long the consecutive positive days will last; from a trend perspective, reaching new highs is inevitable. Recently, the financial sector has been under pressure, but trading volume and the index continue to rise, precisely indicating that bullish sentiment is becoming unstoppable.

However, a bullish trend does not mean blindly chasing highs—divergences during intraday fluctuations often present good opportunities for low buy-ins; if your holdings have already gained significantly, consider switching between different sectors or themes, but I generally advise against holding an empty position waiting. This has been my consistent view.

It's normal to develop a fear of heights after consecutive gains; the market will face pressure sooner or later, but as long as the trend confidence remains, there's no need to stand aside. The key is to focus on the main theme—technology is definitely the core, with segments like commercial aerospace, AI applications, robotics, brain-computer interfaces, autonomous driving, and domestic semiconductor substitution all worth attention.

Although many of these tracks have already experienced a rally, the law of the strong getting stronger remains valid. As main themes diversify, choices will increase; I recommend selecting a few targets for patience and rotation, or participating decisively when divergences appear in strong main themes.

Besides technology, other sectors also have opportunities for catch-up—like today’s rebounds in innovative medicine and commercial retail, which are benefits brought by market volume expansion and capital diffusion. Overall, some prefer high-risk, strong main themes, while others favor low-position accumulation and catch-up sectors. Currently, market chips are highly valued regardless of the choice—this is crucial for supporting the upward trend and is the unique attraction of this wave of market rally.