Russia's space industry faces a chain of setbacks—A crisis of competitiveness in the SpaceX era

As Roscosmos’s flagship projects are repeatedly delayed, the technological gap with SpaceX led by Elon Musk is becoming more evident. Russia’s space development program is facing complex challenges amid the rapid growth of the private space industry, encountering unprecedented trials.

Launch of Soyuz 5 Delayed Again—Prolonged Technical Verification

It has been revealed that the initial launch of the Soyuz 5 rocket, a joint venture between Russia and Kazakhstan, will be postponed due to the need for additional testing. Originally scheduled to be launched from the new facility at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan by the end of 2024, the new launch date remains uncertain until the verification of onboard systems and ground equipment is completed.

The Baitelek complex has functioned as a core launch site at Baikonur, but the delay in this project is not merely a scheduling issue; it symbolizes the overall fragility of Russia’s technological development system.

Structural Problems Caused by Sanctions and Supply Chain Disruptions

The difficulties faced by the Soyuz 5 program trace back to sanctions related to Crimea in 2014. These sanctions significantly restricted access to advanced components and technologies necessary for space system development, slowing progress. Since 2022, additional sanctions have worsened this situation. As Russia’s space industry becomes isolated from the international supply chain, maintaining technological innovation has become even more difficult.

While SpaceX, operated by Elon Musk, continues to innovate with reusable rocket technology, Russia has been forced into stagnation at the basic verification stage, and the technological gap between the two is rapidly widening.

Consecutive Launch Incidents—Trust in Human Spaceflight Wavers

In late November, an incident occurred where a manned launch pad at Baikonur was damaged. Repair is expected to be completed by the end of February 2026, marking a one-year delay from the initially planned February 2025.

More seriously, a failure occurred during the launch of the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft on November 27. A malfunction in the fairing of the service module forced Roscosmos to temporarily halt all manned launches. As this impacted the critical mission of crew transport to the International Space Station (ISS), international confidence in Russia’s space technology is shaken.

Similarly, the launch of the Proton M rocket scheduled for December 15 was not carried out, and since this vehicle has been central to Russia’s commercial and government satellite launches, the impact is extensive.

Structural Challenges Amid Limited Successes

On December 25, a Soyuz 2.1a rocket was successfully launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, and another launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome is scheduled for December 28, indicating that the program has not come to a complete halt. However, these surface-level successes do not conceal the fundamental issues within the technical system.

The challenges facing Russia’s space program—technological limitations, supply chain constraints, and inadequate incident response—stand in stark contrast to the rapid evolution of the private space industry driven by Elon Musk and others. To maintain competitiveness and regain influence like in the past, Russia must undertake fundamental technological innovation and rebuild its international cooperation framework.