I recently came across an interesting research report from asset management giant VanEck's latest forecast. They remain quite optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

The report presents three forecast scenarios. The most conservative and prudent baseline scenario assumes that BTC will account for 5-10% of global trade flow and 2.5% of central bank reserves in the future. By 2050, the price could reach $2.9 million, with an annual compound growth rate of about 15%. This number sounds quite exaggerated, but over a span of more than 30 years, the growth rate isn't unreasonable.

What about the other two scenarios? The conservative investor might say, "Forget it, maybe it will only rise to $130,000." But if you are truly bullish on Bitcoin's value proposition, in an extreme optimistic scenario, it could reach $53.4 million, with an annual growth rate of 29%. The difference between $130,000 and $53.4 million is quite significant.

From an asset allocation perspective, VanEck suggests that for ordinary investors, allocating about 3-5% in a diversified portfolio is reasonable, and those with a high risk appetite might consider up to 20%. The core logic is that Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets is very low, especially as a tool against currency devaluation, and it still holds unique value.

Of course, these are all model predictions, and real market movements will be influenced by countless factors such as regulation, technology, and macroeconomics. But from an institutional perspective, the long-term allocation value of assets like BTC and ETH is indeed worth serious consideration.