The Bank of Japan is set to hold a key meeting on January 23, with the market focusing on a core issue: will the massive stimulus plan of 17.7 trillion yen trigger a new round of interest rate hikes?

Data shows that the central bank has raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, reaching a new high since 1995. The large-scale fiscal stimulus flowing into the economy theoretically could boost inflation expectations and strengthen the case for further rate hikes. However, central bank officials repeatedly emphasize "no preset path," leaving room for market imagination.

The current dilemma is that inflation data has eased in the short term, mainly due to declines in food and energy prices—these are external shocks. What truly warrants attention is the stickiness of core inflation and whether companies can pass costs onto consumers. The continued depreciation of the yen has also intensified import cost pressures.

For the crypto market, the focus of this central bank decision is not on "whether to raise interest rates," but on a shift in policy stance. If the central bank chooses to hold steady, it may imply they are preparing for the next move; if they directly raise growth expectations without changing interest rates, it reflects cautious optimism about the economic outlook.

The suspense will be revealed by the end of the month, but the market has already begun pricing in various possibilities.