#密码资产动态追踪 Non-farm payroll data is coming. Don't just look at the increase in employment—this is actually a sentiment test.

Tonight at 9:30 PM Beijing time, three key data points will trigger market movements: new employment numbers, unemployment rate, and year-over-year wage growth. These directly influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts.

The logic is simple. Once the economy weakens, the Fed has ample reason to cut rates; if the economy remains steady, rate cuts will be delayed. The current market consensus is: the unemployment rate in November will be around 4.6%, new employment about 55,000, and the December unemployment rate may be between 4.6% and 4.7%.

So what counts as good news? If the unemployment rate breaks above 4.7%, or if new employment is far below expectations—once economic pressure becomes evident, the Fed might accelerate rate cuts, supporting risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). Conversely, if new employment exceeds expectations, the unemployment rate stays low or even drops, showing economic resilience, the Fed has no reason to rush rate cuts, and January could see no change. Market expectations could be shattered, and stocks and crypto could be hammered.

Here's a trap: don’t rush into trading just because the data is out. Savvy traders will pay attention to whether the data exceeds expectations, whether the market’s initial reaction is a correction or a routine move, and how future rate expectations are adjusted. Those who suffer big losses on non-farm payroll night are often those who act recklessly without clear thinking.

As for where to specifically intervene after the data is released and when to wait and see, I won’t go into those details today. $BTC