Latest data is in: the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in January has surged to 96%. This outcome is almost a certainty, and the market has already largely digested it.

Why are we so confident? The reason is actually simple. Although inflation is indeed cooling down, it hasn't reached a truly safe level yet. At the same time, the labor market remains resilient, and financial conditions haven't collapsed, which means the Fed has no urgent reason to cut rates. For policymakers, maintaining the status quo carries far less risk than hasty adjustments.

But here’s an interesting twist—does holding rates steady mean bad news? Not necessarily. When the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion, the market’s sell-off has already been completed. The real contest begins now. The key questions are: When will the first rate cut actually start? Will the Fed signal a more dovish stance in its wording? How long will the high-interest-rate environment last?

These three questions will truly determine where USD liquidity flows, how risk assets are re-priced, and the specific direction of global capital.

For the crypto market, a clear expectation can actually be an opportunity. After short-term uncertainty dissipates, the market will start to discern— which projects truly have a user base and revenue model? What are institutions quietly positioning themselves for? Where are the medium- to long-term policy shifts opening windows?

Simply put, a rate hold in January is now a certainty. What’s more important than "how to act" is "how the Fed communicates." Patience and preparedness always leave opportunities for those ready.