#密码资产动态追踪 The recent market signals are dense; it's time to sort them out carefully.

The Federal Reserve has made it clear—they won't cut interest rates at least until May. What does this mean? Global liquidity will continue to tighten, and the financing costs for various assets will only increase. For the crypto market, this directly results in a liquidity crunch effect.

Even more concerning are on-chain data points. A major whale holding 100,000 ETH for 5 years recently transferred 40,000 ETH to an exchange, cashing out over $200 million. What does this kind of operation usually signal? A short-term top-out precursor. When large holders do this, it often indicates concerns about the subsequent market trend.

Political tensions are also adding to the pressure—Trump's administration is once again brewing the risk of a "government shutdown." If such political turmoil actually occurs, the crypto market's typical reaction is to fall first and then rise, but the volatility during this process is unavoidable. A stock market crash, worsening fiat liquidity, and risk-averse capital seeking exits will put pressure on both $BTC and $ETH.

Overall, in the next 1-2 months, the market will enter a high-difficulty phase. Policy pressures from above, whale sell-offs from within, and political risks from the side are all stirring the pot, and increased volatility is already inevitable.

A good approach might be: control the frequency of short-term operations, manage risks well, and wait for this wave to pass before making new moves—this will be more solid.