#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Three key trends are reshaping the recent market.

First, let's look at the macro aspect—The Federal Reserve's latest statement sends a strong signal: they will consider cutting rates only after May. This means global liquidity will remain tight, and funding conditions will stay constrained, so the market's cash flow won't loosen easily.

Next, on-chain movements are even more revealing. A large holder has been holding 100,000 ETH for over five years. Just a few days ago, they suddenly transferred 40,000 ETH to exchanges, worth over $200 million. Such a large-scale sell-off on the chain is traditionally seen as a strong warning sign of a short-term top in the analysis community. Whale movements often preempt changes in market sentiment.

The third variable is political uncertainty. The US government may face another government shutdown crisis. If such political turmoil occurs, the performance of safe-haven assets like Bitcoin is usually unpredictable—initial declines followed by rebounds, or sharp volatility. Historically, similar events have been accompanied by increased volatility.

In summary, the market may face a relatively difficult phase in the next 1 to 2 months. Tightening policies on top, large on-chain sell-offs below, and potential shocks from political events all increase the likelihood of larger fluctuations.

The investment advice is straightforward: focus on short-term observation, keep positions light, and wait until risks are mostly released before considering deployment opportunities. Buckle up with proper risk management and endure this phase. $BTC $ETH