Nasdaq 100 Rebalancing: Strategy Breakthrough, but Risks Remain

The Market Is Fighting an Invisible Opponent

Last week, the Nasdaq 100 announced its annual rebalancing plan, with six additions and six removals. It seemed uneventful on the surface. But what truly warrants attention are the companies that “survived the scrutiny”—Strategy is one of them. As a publicly listed company, it no longer resembles a traditional enterprise; instead, it’s more like an “unidentified flying object” in the market: nominally a tech company, but in reality, it has become a container for Bitcoin’s store of value.

This time, it was not removed, which can be seen as a safe passage.

Six Companies Out, Strategy Remains

Specifically, the scope of this adjustment is quite significant:

• Removed: Biogen, CDW, GlobalFoundries, Lululemon, ON Semiconductor, Trade Desk
• New Additions: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Ferrovial, Insmed, Monolithic Power Systems, Seagate, Western Digital

The changes will take effect on December 22, 2025. In this index game, Strategy’s situation is quite unique. It was expected to face threats due to its overly singular business model, but the index committee ultimately decided to keep it—at least for this round of decisions.

However, the market’s reaction was not supportive. The stock closed down 3.74%, continuing to be under pressure over the past month. This reveals the market’s true sentiment: a single pass does not suffice to allay investors’ concerns.

From “Vault” to “Formula”: An Identity Crisis

Why is Strategy so special? The answer lies in its astonishing Bitcoin reserves.

The company is currently the largest Bitcoin holder among global corporations and continues to increase its holdings. A recent operation in early December illustrates this well: spending approximately $962.7 million to purchase 10,624 BTC, bringing total holdings to 660,624 BTC, valued at about $60 billion at current market prices. This is no longer just asset allocation; it has become a core part of the company’s valuation anchor.

At this level, Strategy’s valuation logic has shifted to: Bitcoin price + premium/discount + financing structure = company value. In other words, it increasingly resembles a Bitcoin fund wrapped in a listed company shell rather than a traditional operating business.

This is also why MSCI has launched an “investigation” into it. The index provider is seriously considering a new rule: removing companies with more than 50% of their assets in crypto. The decision is expected in January 2026. According to JPMorgan estimates, passive funds may be forced to sell up to $2.8 billion worth of holdings.

Can Saylor’s “Financial Explanation” Convince the Market?

In response to the threat from index providers, Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le issued a joint statement on December 10, attempting to shift the narrative.

Their argument is clever: We are not hoarding Bitcoin; we are conducting financial operations. The company issues preferred shares and other financial instruments to finance Bitcoin purchases, which they see as active capital management rather than passive asset accumulation.

Meanwhile, Strategy’s move to raise about $1.44 billion also indicates their intentions—to dispel market doubts about their debt repayment and dividend capabilities. It’s a defensive stance, ensuring the company’s financial stability amid Bitcoin’s unpredictable volatility.

More ambitiously, Saylor proposed a grander narrative at the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi: Strategy is not just a treasury for Bitcoin but should serve as a bridge between traditional capital and digital gold. He even suggested building a “digital credit” mechanism based on Bitcoin to generate yields, thereby attracting participation from sovereign funds, banks, and family offices.

The Future of the Unidentified Flying Object

The story of Strategy is still unfolding. In the short term, its position in the Nasdaq 100 is confirmed, but MSCI’s decision will be announced in the coming weeks, which will be the real test.

If the index provider decides to implement the new rule, forced sales could impact the market. But from another perspective, Strategy is trying to rewrite market perceptions of its business model through financial innovation and structural design.

Will the market accept its reasoning? Or will it forever be defined as that “unidentified flying object”? The answer may be more critical than Bitcoin’s price volatility.