Attention on Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction amid US government shutdown fallout

Amid the gap in economic indicators caused by the government shutdown, Chairman Powell's remarks and the FOMC meeting minutes have emerged as key variables shaping market policy expectations. Following the delay in the September employment data release, investors are currently estimating about a 90% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) meeting on October 29 will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.

The challenges currently facing the market are twofold. On one hand, the fragile labor market in the private sector signals the possibility of interest rate cuts, while on the other hand, persistently high inflation rates continue to complicate the central bank's policy decisions.

In this environment of uncertainty, Chairman Powell's speeches and the FOMC meeting minutes are becoming essential information for interpreting the Fed's future monetary policy stance.