ETH hanging on the brink of liquidation: down 1.261 billion, up 919 million

According to the latest news, ETH currently faces two critical liquidation risk levels. If the price drops below $2,982, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.261 billion; conversely, if it breaks above $3,269, the short liquidation strength will reach $919 million. At the current price of $3,133.91, ETH is situated between these two liquidation traps, and the market is engaged in a delicate battle between bulls and bears.

Liquidation Risk Map: Two Directions with Major Risks

Currently, ETH’s price is in a very delicate position. The distance downward to $2,982 is about $151 (approximately 4.8% decline), while the upward distance to $3,269 is about $135 (approximately 4.3% increase). The gap between these two levels is small, but the corresponding liquidation scales differ significantly.

The core issue reflected by this data is that long leverage positions are significantly heavier. The liquidation scale triggered by breaking below the lower level ($2,982) at $1.261 billion is 37.5% higher than that triggered by breaking above the upper level ($3,269) at $919 million, indicating that the market’s long leverage positions far exceed the shorts.

Hidden Risks Exposed by Surging Funding Rates

According to relevant information, ETH’s funding rate has surged to 66.12%, reaching a level of 0.01275. What does this number imply?

• Funding Rate Meaning: When the funding rate is this high, longs need to pay shorts large fees to maintain their positions.
• Market Signal: This usually indicates overly exuberant bullish sentiment and highly aggressive leverage trading.
• Risk Indication: High funding rates are typical signs of market overheating, often foreshadowing a potential correction.

More notably, although the funding rate is high, the short liquidation amount ($564,780) has already begun to surpass the long liquidation amount ($241,530), suggesting internal market divergence.

Liquidity Concentration and Vulnerability

Relevant information indicates that ETH’s liquidity is mainly concentrated between $3,050 and $3,200. This range includes the current price of $3,133.91.

This liquidity concentration has two sides:

• Positive Aspect: Trading within this range is relatively smooth, making sharp price swings less likely.
• Negative Aspect: Once the price breaks out of this range, liquidity becomes thin, potentially triggering accelerated declines or rises, leading to chain reactions of liquidations.

Considering only $151 of buffer below, a rapid decline could easily break through the $2,982 liquidation line in an instant.

The Market’s Dangerous Balance

To summarize the current situation:

• Bulls are highly leveraged and funding rates are at highs, but the price is stagnating.
• Short liquidations are already increasing, indicating shorts are fighting back.
• Liquidity is concentrated near the current price, and breaking out of this range carries high risk.
• The $1.261 billion long liquidation scale looms like a sword overhead.

Future Focus

From this data, the market’s key point is whether it can break through the $3,200 resistance. If it can move upward, it may ease bullish pressure; if it continues downward, close attention should be paid to the $3,050 support. Once this level is broken, the price could quickly approach $2,982.

Neither direction offers a comfortable scenario. Bulls, under high leverage, have little room to maneuver, while bears are waiting for a breakout opportunity. This situation often resolves with a rapid breakout in one direction to break the deadlock.

Summary

ETH is currently facing a classic “liquidation trap”: over-leveraged longs with stagnant prices, and bears beginning to fight back but without a clear dominance. A break below $2,982 could trigger $1.261 billion in long liquidations, while a break above $3,269 could trigger $919 million in short liquidations. Maintaining this delicate balance is difficult; ultimately, the market will choose a direction to break out. The key is to observe when liquidity is torn apart and which side’s liquidations are triggered first.