CPI Takes Center Stage, Gold Stagnates at Highs Awaiting Direction

The core of trading is to find certainty amid uncertainty, and the December CPI data in the US is precisely the key to breaking the current consolidation in gold.
CPI as a Short-Term Trend "Indicator"
This December's unadjusted CPI YoY pre-release and consensus both stand at 2.70%, with a seasonally adjusted monthly forecast of 0.30%. The data will directly influence the Fed's rate cut expectations:
Data exceeding expectations: Sticky inflation suppresses rate cut expectations, the US dollar strengthens, and gold is likely to face downward pressure;
Data below expectations: Rate cut expectations increase, the US dollar weakens, and gold may break through the consolidation range to new highs;
Data in line with expectations: Market consensus is hard to form, gold continues to oscillate at high levels, awaiting guidance from upcoming non-farm payrolls and meeting minutes.
Currently, gold is in a phase of profit-taking versus new long entries, with CPI becoming the key variable to break the balance.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels Define Strength and Weakness
Gold's 4-hour chart surged to 4630.21 before pulling back, oscillating around 4583, with a range locked between 4493-4630:
Support: 4493.57 (middle band of Bollinger Bands). Holding above this keeps the bullish momentum; strong support at 4356.93, a break below signals a short-term bullish trend reversal;
Resistance: 4630.21 as the recent high. A successful break targets 4700;
Indicators: MACD shows bearish divergence, Bollinger Bands' upper band flattens, short-term upward momentum diminishes, awaiting a breakout signal.
Trading Recommendations
Before the data: buy low and sell high within the 4470-4600 range;
After the data: break above 4630 to chase longs with targets at 4650-4700; break below 4570 to chase shorts with targets at 4550-4500.