#我的2026第一条帖

Let's discuss the possibility of Bitcoin returning to its high point this year

If Bitcoin revisits the 120,000 level or even hits a new high this year, there are two potential patterns: a double top structure and a platform-type correction.

1. The Possibility of a Double Top Structure

A double top is a classic reversal pattern that appears at the end of a long-term uptrend.

In wave theory, the end of an upward trend is usually at the conclusion of the fifth wave. The fifth wave often has the weakest momentum, declining volume, and divergence.
Often, the fifth wave cannot surpass the high of the third wave (a failed fifth wave) or only slightly exceeds it, forming a "false breakout" and quickly falling back, which is characteristic of the right peak in a classic double top. When the right peak appears, market sentiment is extremely optimistic ("the last batch of people entering"), but the actual driving force has already exhausted, fitting the "exhaustion" characteristic of the fifth wave.
The 2021 bull market was a typical double top structure, with the right peak being the fifth major wave of the bull market.

The nature of Wave B is a corrective rebound, usually with smaller volume, shorter duration, and a three-wave structure, rarely creating new highs (except in very rare cases of expanding platforms or irregular strong Wave B in platforms, but even then, it rarely forms the "symmetrical high point" of a classic double top). If the right peak is Wave B, then the entire double top becomes a correction pattern within a downtrend, but this conflicts with the "major reversal at the top" connotation of a double top.

This cycle of the bull market has a clear five-wave structure, with the fifth wave ending last October, so the probability of a new high forming from Wave B and creating a double top is quite low.

2. The Possibility of a Platform-Type Correction

If we analyze it as a platform-type correction, it implies that this bull market will end in January 2025, with 2025.1-2025.4 as Wave A decline, 2025.4-2025.10 as Wave B rebound, and since October 2025 as Wave C decline, forming an expanding platform correction. After Wave C completes, a new bull market will begin.

However, this scenario faces several challenges:

First, typically, the volume during Wave C decline in a platform correction is relatively small, but the decline volumes in October and November 2025 are not smaller than those in February and March 2025.

Second, if it is a platform correction, then the next bull market is imminent. Where will the upward momentum come from? Are ETFs and DAT perpetual motion machines?

Third, from a chip distribution perspective, each bear market bottom usually involves a significant decrease in short-term holder (STH) chips and a notable increase in long-term holder (LTH) chips. This indicates that the floating chips in the market are exhausted, preparing for a new bull market. Currently, LTH chips have just been distributed, and STH chips still constitute a relatively high proportion. Can a new bull market be forcibly launched under these conditions?

Finally, the tail signs of the US stock market are quite evident, and a correction may begin as early as Q2. If the US stock market experiences a sharp pullback, can Bitcoin rise against the trend and start a new bull market?

Therefore, I believe the probability of a platform-type correction is also quite low.

Overall, the probability of Bitcoin returning to its high point this year is quite small.

Of course, if Trump can fully control the Federal Reserve within a few months and immediately initiate a massive liquidity injection like in 2020, then anything could happen...