Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market? The correlation turns negative in early 2026. What does this mean?

Question

【Crypto World】 Recently, some institutions have predicted that the total return of the global stock market over the next 12 months may break through double digits, with growth mainly supported by corporate profit growth and economic expansion. This wave of gains in traditional markets has attracted a lot of attention, naturally leading more people to focus on digital asset opportunities.

In the long term, Bitcoin maintains a positive correlation with the S&P 500 index, but recent developments have shown a change. According to the latest statistics from an on-chain data tracking platform, the correlation between the two shifted at the end of 2025 and had dropped to -0.02 by early 2026. Although the magnitude is not large, this signal is worth noting — Bitcoin is gradually becoming independent of traditional stock market sentiment and forming its own rhythm.

ZenZKPlayer · Accepted Answer

Forget it, it's the same old correlation story. I knew it would decouple eventually.

Nothing you say matters; making money is the real key.

Is it really different this time? I doubt it. Let's wait and see the data.

Finally showing some independence, about time.

-0.02, are you serious? Haha, is this what you call decoupling?

I've heard the "Bitcoin's own rhythm" line too many times.

Still, I trust the real on-chain data. Don't let the news set the pace.

DEXRobinHood · Answer

Wait, -0.02 and you're already making a fuss? The data fluctuation is ridiculously small, what's the point of turning around?

We've been talking about decoupling for three years, but true independence hasn't arrived yet.

You want to buy the dip in Bitcoin during that stock market rally? Wake up, the mindsets of players in the two markets are completely different.

When will Bitcoin truly become completely unrelated to macroeconomics? Then I'll believe it.

First, ask if this statistic is reliable; is -0.02 relevant enough to be considered a major news story?

Here we go again, creating anxiety. Retail investors hear this and get panicked into buying the dip.

CryptoPunster · Answer

Ha, decoupled again? Fine, this time I bet Bitcoin can decouple to my heartbreak.

Finally no need to watch the stock market's face, so爽.

Correlation -0.02? Almost thought Bitcoin learned to live independently, but turns out it’s still that pathetic.

When the stock market rises, we follow suit; when it falls, we follow suit too. Now it’s finally reversing? Laughing to death, this is called progress.

Decoupling is decoupling, anyway my money has already disappeared independently.

The S&P 500 is  dollars each, Bitcoin is @E5@ hundred thousand, are we really talking about the same universe?

The fact that correlation turned negative shows Bitcoin has learned to operate inversely, just like my stock trading style.

So now that the stock market is rising, should I short Bitcoin? My brain really is a brain that can’t make money.

Making stories again, why didn’t you talk about decoupling when it was rising, only mentioning independence when it’s falling, interesting.

-0.02 can even make the news? Forget it, I give up trying to understand the market.

SpeakWithHatOn · Answer

Decoupled? -0.02 still calls it decoupling. This data fluctuates for a couple of weeks and then reverses. Don't mistake noise for signals.

BTC should be independent in the first place. Being too tightly bound to the stock market is actually awkward.

Finally, there's a sense of some disconnection, indicating that the market is maturing.

This negative correlation is purely normal fluctuation. Don't over-interpret it.

It feels like institutions are laying out some story, waiting to harvest the retail investors.

SelfRugger · Answer

Decoupling? -0.02 still calls it decoupling? Can this data be blown out of proportion? Let's talk again when it really drops to -0.5. For now, it's just fluctuations.

Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market? The correlation turns negative in early 2026. What does this mean?

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