The bullish momentum in the crypto market is fading, and participants are beginning to ignore the true signals from macro data.

2026-01-13 11:04:36

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam’s recent analysis points out an interesting phenomenon in the crypto market: market participants seem to have abandoned paying attention to macro data’s impact on cryptocurrencies. This is reflected not only in sentiment indicators but more importantly, may signal that the market is entering a new phase.

What Are Market Sentiment Indicators Saying

Market mindset changes behind the decline in IV

According to Greeks.live’s observations, implied volatility (IV) in cryptocurrencies has shown a significant decrease compared to a week ago. The meaning of this decline is crucial: market participants generally believe that macro data no longer influence the crypto market.

In other words, even with tonight’s 9:30 US CPI data release, market participants are no longer anxiously awaiting this data as they once did. What does this attitude shift indicate?

Indicator	Direction of Change	Market Implication
IV (Implied Volatility)	Noticeable decline	Participants are insensitive to macro data
Skew	Rebounded from early-month surge	Bullish sentiment is waning
Market sentiment	Continues to weaken	Participants’ patience is being tested

The true meaning of Skew returning to holiday levels

The early-month rebound briefly lifted the Skew indicator, but that rise has now ended. Currently, Skew has fallen back to holiday levels, indicating that the support for bullish sentiment is diminishing.

Several Signals About the Current Market Situation

From Adam’s analysis, the current crypto market exhibits several clear characteristics:

Weak bullish momentum: Lack of strong upward driving force
Weak market sentiment: Participants’ enthusiasm is noticeably lacking
Sensitive to volatility: Although indifferent to macro data, reacts sharply to price fluctuations
In a patience test phase: This is not a collapse but a frustrating sideways period

The macro background hasn’t disappeared, it’s just being ignored

It’s worth noting that Adam mentions the Middle East situation still fueling gold and silver prices; macro data indeed has some influence. But crypto market participants seem to have reached a consensus: these factors’ impact on cryptocurrencies is no longer worth paying attention to.

This shift may stem from multiple reasons. Perhaps participants have experienced enough macro data releases and found their influence diminishing; perhaps the crypto market has established a relatively independent pricing logic; perhaps current participants are more focused on on-chain data and internal market dynamics.

Summary

Greeks.live’s analysis reveals a subtle but important shift in the crypto market: from focusing on external macro factors to paying attention to internal market dynamics. The decline in IV and the retreat of Skew jointly indicate that the market is in a phase of weaker bullish forces and more subdued sentiment. This is not a warning sign but a sign that the market is reorienting itself. For investors, what is most needed now may not be tracking macro data but understanding the true mindset of market participants and the internal forces at play.

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