The US non-farm payroll data just came out, and once again it did not meet market expectations. Many people get confused when they see this kind of economic indicator—should they be optimistic or pessimistic?

On the surface, weak data suggests that the Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, which sounds like good news—liquidity would be more abundant, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies usually benefit. However, on the flip side, poor economic data could also be a sign of an impending recession, which would cause market risk appetite to decline, and funds might flow into safe-haven assets.

In simple terms, the key depends on how the market itself reacts. In the short term, weak non-farm payroll data can easily trigger expectations of the Fed adjusting its policy, and such expectations often give the crypto market upward momentum. But if the underlying message truly reflects a deteriorating economic fundamental, then in the long run, it could be bad news. Instead of obsessing over whether this data is good or bad, it’s better to focus on observing market sentiment, capital flows, and the actual performance of risk assets—those are the real indicators that reveal the true direction.