1.13: Bitcoin Prepares for a Bullish Rebound, The Horn Could Sound Anytime

Since experiencing the last rapid plunge and flood release on November 21 of last year, BTC has been oscillating above the low of $80,000 for 52 trading days. During this period, the price has gradually stabilized from an initial sharp swing within 10 days of bottoming out to a more subdued movement, becoming increasingly stable. Market panic has further eased. Meanwhile, selling pressure has been fully released through active sell-offs. The prolonged sideways movement has led to thorough turnover of market positions, with greater patience among holders.

On the latest daily chart, the candlesticks are now above the MA30 and MA60, indicating the early stages of breaking free from the downward channel. From the candlestick patterns, since December 19 of last year at $84,500, the retracement lows have moved slightly upward, suggesting that buyers are eager to enter the market, and the bulls are beginning to rebound and release energy upward.

Although currently in a bear market phase, it does not mean a continuous sharp decline. The author believes that after a significant downward move, the upward release of bullish buying interest to delay the bear cycle is understandable. Based on the deep prediction of BTC’s trend from late October to mid-November last year, completing the entire bear market in less than four months seems unlikely, as it’s difficult to force out loyal holders. Due to the rapid decline and short duration, sideways consolidation and upward releases to accumulate buying power are inevitable. From this, the author infers that in the short term, BTC’s price still has a high probability of further turning toward a bullish market, forming a clear upward trend.

Of course, the trading approach here references the posture after the initial decline in the previous bear market. Look at the historical basis in the chart. The author judges that the next upward move is already quite close. From the details, the price has led a small rally since January 1 of this year. On January 6, it reached the upper boundary of sideways consolidation around $94,500, then experienced a noticeable pullback. This behavior is a clear attempt to test the upward trend. The pullback is for shakeout, to flush out bottom-fishing positions, and to reduce the chasing longs for the subsequent rebound and rally, making it easier for major players to exit later.

Currently, after peaking at $94,600 on the 6th and pulling back, BTC has stabilized around $90,000 with a wave of stabilization and repair. Bulls are regaining confidence, and the price is once again testing upward, indicating a high chance of breaking through the upper boundary of consolidation at $94,600 toward the $100,000 mark. For traders with short-term operations, conservative strategies could involve accumulating longs around the support zone of $89,000–$91,000. For those expecting a bullish rebound, entering around $91,500 is also feasible. For right-side traders, a strong breakout above $95,000 can directly follow the long position.

Overall, considering the current situation, this is viewed as a rebound wave within the bear market. It is recommended to focus on long positions on dips below $94,000. After the price tests the resistance near $94,500 again, short-term short positions can be considered. For the medium-term rebound peak, the author predicts a range of $104,000–$107,000.