#比特币ETF Bitcoin ETF net outflows have approached $1 billion in the past two weeks, and this signal cannot be ignored. On-chain data is even more straightforward—the net inflow of funds into the crypto market has turned negative, dropping to -$4.5 billion, marking the first time in nearly two years.

The possibility of a short-term rebound indeed exists, but caution is needed to distinguish the driving forces behind the rebound. The current upward movement is most likely driven by leverage trading rather than spot demand support, and such rebounds have historically often led to chasing highs and getting trapped. Similar to the trend after the 2021 peak—there is still a high possibility of retesting lows after the rebound.

The key risk point is the continued outflow of funds. As long as this trend does not reverse, the probability of prices reaching even lower lows always exists. It is recommended to focus on changes in ETF flows and on-chain fund movements, as these two indicators will signal earlier than the price itself.