Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US December CPI data will be released, with the market generally expecting an annual rate of 2.7%. This data is highly significant for investors—it could reflect the true inflation trend or simply be "noise" at the statistical level.

The macro environment is currently quite complex. A rate cut in January is basically off the table, but the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in March-April is the real key. Powell is about to step down, and the window for a policy shift is right there. Coupled with the technical factors that a government shutdown could push CPI higher, and internal Fed disagreements on rate cuts, the overall situation becomes very unpredictable.

In the long term, the fundamentals for gold are solid. Central banks worldwide are still actively buying gold to promote "de-dollarization"; geopolitical conflicts and US debt pressures are also reinforcing gold's safe-haven value. Institutions generally expect gold prices to surge to $5,000 by 2026.

But short-term trading requires caution. If CPI meets or even falls below expectations, the rate cut expectations will quickly heat up, and gold prices are likely to test the $4605-4610 range upward. The problem is, the RSI on the monthly chart is already in historically overbought territory, and many short-term funds are taking profits. After a spike, a pullback is inevitable, likely returning to the $4560-4570 consolidation zone.

From a trading perspective, you can follow the logic of "rising then falling": short a position around 4608, with a stop-loss set at 4615 (to prevent an extreme breakout above the historical high), and the target below is the oscillation zone of 4560-4570. It’s important to note that market reactions to data can be biased—below expectations has the greatest impact on gold prices, while slightly higher data is often interpreted as short-term disturbance, not changing the overall medium-term bull market. In operations, always strictly control position sizes and look for signals where macro trends and technical indicators resonate before taking action.