Tonight, the US CPI data will be released, which is the most critical factor affecting market sentiment recently. Usually, there will be intense volatility 20-30 minutes after the data is announced, and this is not random but follows a clear logical chain: CPI release → change in inflation expectations → market re-evaluates Federal Reserve policy → funds and sentiment quickly shift.

The current market generally expects the November unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate to be 2.7%. What does this number actually mean? Breaking it down makes it clear.

**If the actual data exceeds 2.7%**, it indicates that inflation is not cooling down as ideally as hoped, and stickiness is stronger than expected. This suggests the Fed may slow down the pace of rate cuts, and the market’s optimistic expectations for future rate declines will be undermined. In the short term, the US dollar will face upward pressure, and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are likely to come under pressure — this is the so-called "bearish" signal.

**Conversely, if the data reaches or falls below 2.7%**, the signal is very positive. Inflation is approaching the Fed’s 2% target, and expectations for a prolonged rate-cut cycle will be reinforced. Risk appetite increases, and the crypto market often sees rebound opportunities.

As the release time approaches, the market has already entered a tense state, and volatility will definitely intensify. For short-term traders, this is a test of their position management skills. Those holding positions can consider gradually reducing leverage, and those with no positions should not rush to enter; it’s better to wait until the data is actually out before making decisions.

The most critical point: do not blindly chase gains or cut losses in the first few minutes after the data is released — that’s not the time for gambling. The real opportunity lies in understanding how the market is re-pricing the core narrative of "rate cut expectations." Managing your positions well allows you to take control amid volatility, rather than being forced into wrong decisions by market movements. Protect your chips well, and you’ll have the capital to continue playing in this market.