Gold is now stuck in a narrow range, just waiting for tonight's 21:30 US December CPI data to break the deadlock.

Why is this CPI so critical? Last month, the government shutdown distorted the data a bit, but this month should see a rebound and correction. Focus on the price trends of goods and services.

Honestly, the positive impact this data might bring to gold may not be that exaggerated, but risk control must keep pace, and we should have reverence for the market.

**Two scenarios and how to respond:**

If the data exceeds expectations (>2.7%), the dollar will strengthen, and expectations for rate cuts will diminish, making gold prone to short-term pullbacks. At this point, stay above the support level of 4550-4570; if broken, look further down to 4530. A rebound to 4600-4620 can be a light attempt to short, with a stop-loss at 4630, targeting 4570. Be quick in and out.

If the data meets or is below expectations (≤2.7%), the situation reverses. The dollar faces pressure, expectations for rate cuts rise, and gold looks promising. Breakouts above 4620-4630 can be followed for long positions, with a stop-loss at 4600, targeting 4650-4662. Alternatively, a dip to 4580-4590 can be a light long entry, with a stop-loss at 4560.

In the long term, inflation is trending downward, and the story of a soft landing for the economy continues. The Fed may cut rates mid-year, and this logic won't reverse just because of one data point. The core remains: CPI determines short-term trends, but the medium-term bullish trend supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and geopolitical factors won't change.

Market is ever-changing, trade at your own risk. $BTC $ETH