#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 Gold broke through the all-time high in the early trading session, firmly staying above 4630. Subsequently, the market entered a period of fluctuation at lower levels, but that's not surprising—big moves always involve some back-and-forth. The long positions placed around 4580 in the morning performed well, basically dancing along with the intraday trend, once again confirming the logic of consolidation during the day.

Volatility is normal, and new highs shouldn't be overexcited. The most important thing in trading is to maintain your direction amid fluctuations and see the trend truly materialize at the moment of persistence.

What will happen in the evening? From a technical perspective, gold found clear support in the 4560-4580 range today and is now gradually climbing upward. The short-term focus is on the 4600 threshold—whether it can break through depends on this level. Market sentiment remains bullish, with buyers stepping in on every dip.

On the macro front, things are a bit chaotic. The independence of the Federal Reserve has been troubling the market, and recently Powell received a subpoena from the Department of Justice, even facing the possibility of criminal charges, which indeed makes market expectations for policy outlooks more uncertain. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are spreading in Latin America, with the US constantly making moves, pushing safe-haven demand higher step by step.

Most importantly, the key CPI data will be released tonight—this will determine the next move. Before the data is out, the market is likely to test back and forth between 4560-4580, which is the best opportunity to build positions. If inflation drops significantly, expectations for rate cuts will strengthen, and gold may surge past 4600, launching an attack toward 4620-4630. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations suddenly, the hot rate-cut expectations will cool down, and with geopolitical conflicts and the rate cut outlook already largely priced in, gold could fall sharply. If it breaks below the critical support at 4550, it will likely accelerate downward to the 4510-4520 range.